Follow The Money | July 31, 2026 | Hour 2

**Paulie Howard** (0:02)
That's what I always say, you always follow the money. This is Follow The Money with Mitch Moss and Paulie Howard on VSiN.

**Mitch Moss** (0:11)
Thanks for checking in. Watching as always on YouTube TV, listening on SiriusXM channel 158, iHeartRadio, TuneIn Radio, or any of our great affiliates across the country. Mitch Moss along with Mike Somich today. Live in Vegas, Circa Resort Casino is your spot. Busy hour coming up. We'll get into tonight's Major League Baseball card in 15 minutes. Bottom of the hour preview of the LA. Chargers and also some NFL awards coming up at the back end. We'll begin National Football League here. I was going over some stuff for a little bit later on in this hour for Coach of the Year. And I was reminded, because I had tickets on a couple of guys last year that I thought had a chance to win, especially late in the season.
It turned out with the votes, they had like no prayer of winning, which still angers me. Like Ben Johnson was one of my guys at big tickets. One first place vote.

**Mike Somich** (0:55)
I should have won.

**Mitch Moss** (0:56)
One first place vote for what he did. Do you consider what they did and how that team looked under Matt Iberfluss in the previous years? What? He had no chance to win the award.
Mind boggling to me. He admitted today on the off season hype for the Bears, he said, quote, we're the number one regression candidate. First of all, I love Ben Johnson. I tip my cap for him to actually acknowledging that because he's absolutely a hundred percent spot on with this.

**Mike Somich** (1:19)
Correct.

**Mitch Moss** (1:20)
Based on everything that happened last year. They are, I've had, I want, and we can discuss here. I want to love this Bears team for two very specific reasons. But my God almighty, Mike, the things that went right for that team last year, can't possibly happen again.

**Mike Somich** (1:34)
I mean, let's talk about the variance first, and then I'm going to make a comparison that I absolutely hate. And I'm going to argue why I think it's not an accurate comparison. Even though it probably kind of is. Bears were plus 22 in turnover differential last year.
Okay, let that sink in. Plus 22
On average, over one more turnover game than their opponents, they only, and I'm saying only when you have that turnover differential, 111 games, it was like seven of them were one possession games. Their Pythagorean Wind Theorem was two less than their 11 and six record. They were supposed to be nine and eight. It's absolutely unsustainable to get 22 turnovers, a differential of plus 22 again. Sure. You usually see regression. I do think that there is a little bit of this that's sustainable, but not at plus 22 levels. I think they could be a plus eight to plus 10 team because they don't turn the football over very often. But to be plus 22, I think is crazy. They also had some absolutely nuts plays. If you go through some of the plays that K. Williams makes, some of the ones that they had.

**Mitch Moss** (2:32)
That's another thing, right? They won like six, seven games last year in the final couple of minutes. That will not happen again this year, resulting in all those one score games at the very end, coin flips going their way. That's basically unsustainable as well. To your point about the 20, that's one of the first things that I like that people look at for the upcoming win totals for a following week. What was the turnover differential the previous year?
You're exactly spot on with that. That can be a thing for a full year. When we're in week six and a team might be plus eight already in turnover, well, that might not be a thing. For one year, that could be something that actually goes that way for one specific season.

**Mike Somich** (3:08)
Correct.

**Mitch Moss** (3:08)
But for that to happen over and over again, like a never-ending string of years.

**Mike Somich** (3:13)
It's just not possible.

**Mitch Moss** (3:14)
Borderline impossible.

**Mike Somich** (3:15)
Well, you look at fumbles. Fumbles are luck.

**Mitch Moss** (3:18)
A hundred percent they are.

**Mike Somich** (3:18)
It's basically 50-50 of who recovers the fumble, the offense or the defense. Yes, there are certain fumbles that are higher percentage of recovery, but let's just say basically 50-50. Interceptions, obviously less luck, but you can look at things like turnover worthy plays, and you can see that probably shouldn't have ended up plus 22 You caught some lucky breaks on both of those sides. The comparison that freaks me out, absolutely scares me.