Fall Market Swoon, Followed By An End-Of-Year Boom? | Mark Newton, Fundstrat

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**Mark Newton** (0:56)
So, my target, it was lifted to 8,000 from 7,300.
I do see that by end of year, market should end the year on a positive note. I just don't think it's going to be an easy two or three months. I think we're entering a time when specifically in September, we're likely going to get some volatility. And we can speak about that in more detail.

**Adam Taggart** (1:23)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. And I'm very happy to be welcoming you here for an update discussion with Fundstrat's Mark Newton.
Mark is the head of research or head of technical analysis there, Mark?

**Mark Newton** (1:40)
Head of technical strategy. Yeah.

**Adam Taggart** (1:42)
Okay. Great. So Mark, you have been a very valuable addition here to the Thoughtful Money faculty roster. And I very much appreciate you coming back on here in midsummer to give us an update. I was looking back at our last conversation on the channel, which we had back in April. And I'm going to mention where you got things right and where you got things a little wrong, and you were much more right than you were wrong. But we were talking in late April, when the markets were on a decline. And your default expectation was that we're probably going to have a real swoon in May, but then the market's going to power to all-time highs in the summer, new highs in the summer.
The May swoon didn't really materialize. May was actually a pretty good month, and the markets have pretty much just gone up on a 45-degree angle. Since then, so you totally got the summer boom part of it correct here. So anyways, congratulations on that. At the end of the day, making it to your planned destination is what matters, and you certainly have so far.
I guess what I'd like to do with you here is just sort of pick up the conversation of, okay, so that was then. What do you see coming ahead from here?

**Mark Newton** (3:04)
I think it's actually a very good sign that we've seen such rampant breadth improvement really since the lows were made in the final week of March of this year.
I guess in May, I had some cycles and things that suggested the technology might have started to weaken, but I actually was quite encouraging to see that sectors like financials and health care and discretionary and industrials had all started to show very good outperformance. And so that really helped to lift market breadth in a way that helped to cushion the market at a time when technology did undergo a very necessary period of consolidation. And I think that that happened across many different parts of tech and during different times. Thankfully, it was not all of tech all at once, or there would have been a larger sell-off. But the markets honestly went sideways from May until mid-July, and now we've broken back out to new all-time highs.
Where we go next, I think, is it's going to prove a little bit choppy between now and the midterms. It shouldn't be a straight shot, it should continue to push higher in the next few months. And the reasons for that really have to do with the fact that tech still has some work to do before it can really can regain some of the former momentum it had. We had a big sell-off in technology, of course, and now that's rebounded. But parts of tech are still similar to software in the early part of the year. They're going to need to consolidate. And when I say consolidate, I guess I mean stabilize before they can really start to push back to highs. And that is in regards to semiconductor, really in many memory names. And so that is the first thing that I don't suspect that tech is going to be probably the best sector over the next couple of months.