FA Cup final preview | Football…Only Bettor

**Kevin Hatchard** (0:00)
It's been a dire season for Chelsea, miles off the pace in the Premier League, dismantled by PSG in the Champions League, and they've had a glut of different coaches in another chaotic campaign. That said, the West London Giants can put a sheen on the season if they win this weekend's FA Cup final against a Manchester City team that could still complete a domestic treble. I'm Kevin Hatchard, and this is Football Only Better.
Big games of course get the big names, starting with the data doctor himself. Jake Olskethorpe is here. Jake, City odds on favourites at Wembley. They face a Chelsea team that's been spiralling for quite some time.

**Jake Osgathorpe** (0:45)
Yeah, and you know what? It's a desperate Chelsea team given the state of the Premier League. I don't think this ownership, this club can go without European football. And it looks like this is their only path to it. And that would only be Europa League football as well. So there's a lot on the line for Chelsea, but so many injuries. Obviously, a caretaker manager in the dugout. Players, well, they're doing things that I think, what did you call them the other week, Lewis? I'm not going to repeat it because I've forgotten. It was very amusing. Good story. Yeah. Look, the only thing that they have as a small advantage is rest for this game. They've not played since last week, but City did rotate heavily and still won comfortably in midweek. City obviously play against Bournemouth the following week, so they have that potentially to worry about.
But it's just very hard to make a case for Chelsea. And like I said, the main issue they've had is injuries, absentees recently, especially in forward areas, to come to go with a very mediocre back line. And it's just meant that the goals have dried up. Like they've really struggled to score goals. You only have to look through their recent games. They scored at Liverpool, it was 0.5 expected goals. They managed in that game and scored from a direct free kick against Nottingham Forest. It was 1.35 non-penalty expected goals and an overhead kick that got them on the score sheet against Leeds in the FA Cup in the semi-final. They managed just 0.38 expected goals and won that game 1-0. So they really are struggling. And it has to be said, City, they're looking really strong, not just going forward, but defensively as well. We saw them in the Carabao Cup do a real number on Arsenal. They were very impressive on that occasion. They've kind of gone on strength to strength ever since, and they made light work of a tough schedule. Obviously, they only blip being against Everton, but that was all by their own doing. It was just moments of madness from City defenders to kind of gift Everton goals and let them back in the game. So as much as I think these Chelsea players can raise themselves for these one-off occasions, I don't know if there's enough quality in the match day squad. I think the 11th is probably okay to compete, but you've not got the depth because of the amount of injuries to be able to handle City and what they can bring off the bench later on in the game. So yeah, look, I mean, I'm not going to steal Lewis' thunder because I'm sure he's going to trot out his Wembley under stats. But my main bet here was just going to be City to lift the under three and a half goals at 1.84.
But I do think that the general trend with FA Cup finals are low scoring and low card. So it's very rare that you get a high card FA Cup final. But I do think this could be different because we have a good referee in Darren England, who's averaging over four cards per game. And you have two teams that are very card heavy. Chelsea, they've collected the most cards in the entire league this season. And Manchester City, their games have seen four or more cards in 17 of the last 21 across all competitions. So they play front foot. They play quite an aggressive press now that they play with so many forward players, forward thinking players, a lot of cynical fouls in there as well. So I think this could be one way you look at taking a few card player card bets. And the kind of cliche for me is that I always like to look at referees and what they do in the FA Cup. And Darren England, his last FA Cup game he refereed was Leeds versus Norwich. Leeds won 3-0 in a home route and he showed five cards, which is I think very promising because usually referees in those kind of games would show one or two because it's an FA Cup game. It's very one sided. There's not a lot to play for.