Dubai Retail Property Sales Hit Record Highs

**Tim Elliott** (0:00)
The Morning Drive, Dubai's retail property market, off to a flying start in 2026 Sales values jumping 171% to 2.1 billion dirhams. That's driven by a surge in off-plan deals. At the same time, rents continuing to climb, even as more businesses choose to renew leases instead of relocating. So joining us this morning, Ali Siddiqui is research manager at Cavendish Maxwell Property Consultancy to look at the things driving the trends, what they mean for investors and retailers, and the wider economy. Good to see you.

**Ali Siddiqui** (0:37)
Good morning. Thank you so much for having me.

**Tim Elliott** (0:39)
Back again. It's just a couple of weeks since we last saw you.
Good to have you back in the studio. The headline number is huge. 171% jump in sales values, which is pretty strong investor appetite, despite a tougher than expected economic environment that we're facing, I guess. How much of this is driven by actual market heat, if you like? And how much of it is fueled specifically by the surge in off-plan retail projects?

**Ali Siddiqui** (1:10)
So from an investor's point of view, what we are seeing at the moment is that they're taking a long-term view in the market. Now the retail sector historically has been supported by a couple of factors. You have your strong population growth. You have seen population rise by 5.7% over the last couple of years. At the same time, international arrivals have reached record high as well. And we also have business expansion. So the off-plan segment is something which is an anticipated delivery over the next couple of years.
Investors understand that, okay, the current situation that we are in at the moment is not going to last long. We don't know when it's going to end, but it's definitely not going to last long.
Given that, and given the historical performance that the retail sector has shown, it's something in which the thought that, fine, let's invest into it, because eventually, two, three years down the line, the population growth is expected to increase again, international tourism is going to come again, which is going to support the retail sector as an overall.

**Tim Elliott** (2:09)
Okay. So, we're seeing off-planet sales account for what? 60% of that total value.
Is that just a healthy sign of long-term belief in Dubai, or is there a little bit of investors chasing attractive payment plans that maybe developers are offering right now?

**Ali Siddiqui** (2:28)
It's a combination of both of them, actually. So, like I said, historically, the retail sector has performed really well. It is expected to perform again once the situation changes.
At the same time, we have developers offering flexible payment plans. Now, you have a strong performance within the ready segment as well. It's not like the ready segment is not performing well. The off-planet sector becomes more attractive because of your payment plans, the entry points, because you don't have to put in a down payment within the off-planet segment. It's a combination of both factors. It's a long-term approach as well as the flexibility provided by developers.

**Tim Elliott** (3:04)
Okay. And that belief in the Dubai story.
Sales are soaring. New leasing contracts, however, have dropped by a third. So, renewals dominating just over 80% of the market. A business is playing it safe because things have been uncertain and continue to be that way. Or is expansion, is making expansion, is it harder because of the rising cost of that prime retail space?

**Ali Siddiqui** (3:34)
No, it's more to do with the uncertainty that we have in the market at the moment. As you mentioned, majority of the rental contracts that we have at the moment are renewal.
Now, your new contracts were already falling even before the conflict had started, right? Now, what that tells us is that the availability of good locations. Now, for retail, you need to have a location which has a good footfall. It has a good neighborhood around you where you have a lot of people coming in.
Now, retailers that were planning to do an expansion, all the financial modelings, all the planning that they had done was prior to the conflict had started, right? The demand or the demand analysis or the expected returns that they were going to expect out of those expansion were done pre-conflict. Now, they have to run those numbers again, which takes time, right? So, that's the reason you're seeing a fall in new contracts. Now, your renewal contracts are down as well, but it's not like it's fallen off the roof. Now, within the first five months, your renewal contracts are down by 2%, which isn't that much. Your new contracts is the one which has actually taken the hit. Why? Because expansion has slowed down. So, it's more of a wait and see approach with a combination of remodeling your finances to see if it's the right time to move into a different space.