Do falling property prices create opportunity?

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**Carrington Clarke** (0:38)
Australia's property market is on the move. For five months in a row now, prices have been falling. Buyers are cautious with auction results soft, and the spring selling season is shaping up to be very different to last year. So what's causing it? Who stands to gain and who is getting squeezed? Welcome to ABC Business Daily.
I'm Carrington Clarke.

**David Taylor** (1:02)
And I'm ABC Business Correspondent, David Taylor.

**Carrington Clarke** (1:05)
David Taylor. Happy spring. I've embraced it fully. I'm in short sleeves.

**SPEAKER_2** (1:11)
You're looking good. Thank you very much. You are looking good.

**David Taylor** (1:14)
I just said before we came on air, you're looking good.

**Carrington Clarke** (1:16)
That's very good. It's good to have an ego boost before we get into a 20 minute conversation about property. It has been a chilly winter for those people who've been trying to sell their property. What we got today was data out from Kotality, but also REA came out with their data as well. They're basically telling the same story, which is that we've seen this trend now since earlier in the year. March was the peak and property prices have continued to get softer since then.
But these numbers are stark. When I think when you put it into, people see percentages and I think sometimes that doesn't mean a whole lot to a lot of people. But I think when you break it down into how much people are actually losing as far as the value in their home is concerned, it starts to feel a bit more real for people. So the average price of a dwelling across the country now, the national price, it's come down about $35,000 since the peak. That's a pretty big hit. If you're talking in Sydney terms, now Sydney has been hit the most. It's down 7.1 percent. You're talking about $93,000 in value. That's the average home. Obviously, for some people, it's a lot worse. For some people, it's much better.
What did you make of it? Is there anything new or surprising in this data for you, David?

**David Taylor** (2:28)
Well, Carrington, it was the fifth straight month of declines according to Cotality. And I think if you're looking at the house price falls in August, so you've got 0.9 of 1%, that's the biggest monthly drop this year. So you do get the impression that, as you say, prices started, the markets started to turn at the start of the year. And then it went from pockets in the national housing picture. And we have spoken before and other economists have spoken about the idea of there being, is there a national housing market or are there pockets of different markets? And certainly, I mean, you could argue both are true. But we did go from a downturn in pockets of the national housing market. And then we moved, it broadened out a couple of months ago.
And then it accelerated in terms of that national picture. And now it's accelerated just a little bit more. And you're dead right to point out these percentage changes, because it's very hard to get a handle on what that means. And great that you put some actual prices and value drops on that.
But it looks like that the momentum that we started to see in the downturn earlier this year is gathering some pace. And to be frank with you, not many people are saying that the momentum, apart from some real estate agents, not many people are saying that that momentum is going to dissipate anytime soon.

**Carrington Clarke** (3:51)
Yeah, and I think you get into a situation. I mean, I said this expression to a friend the other day, and they're like, you guys in finance just have something, have expressions that you think everyone else understands and no one knows. But the expression that no one wants to try to catch a falling knife, I think is very apt in this situation, which is that I think a lot of buyers are sitting on the sidelines right now.
They're listening to the news, they're reading headlines, they know the market is falling, and they don't want to be buying if there's a lot further to fall. Now, as you said-