Daniel Gross’s AGI Trades, SpaceX’s $1.75T IPO, Google Silences Sweeney | Mark Gurman, Dan Primack, Cameron McCord, Max Haot, Christian Howell

**John Coogan** (0:00)
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Today is Thursday, March 5th, 2026 We are live from the TBPN Ultradome, the Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Let me tell you about ramp.com. Time is money, save both, easy to use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place. We have.

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We are sick. John and I are both very sick.

**John Coogan** (0:18)
Sick of not podcasting. Let's go. We are actually very sick.

**Jordi Hays** (0:22)
We are deathly ill, but.

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That's the beauty of watching TBPN Live. A daily show. There's no risk of me getting you sick because you're on the other side of a screen. Screen time.

**Jordi Hays** (0:32)
And that's the beauty of a daily show. There's no, you don't ever have sick days.

**John Coogan** (0:36)
Yeah, there's no days off.

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Because there's no days off.

**John Coogan** (0:38)
And we have a fantastic lineup today. We have Mark Gurman joining. Let's pull up the Linear Lineup. Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspace is on Linear using agents. We have Dan Primack coming on from Axios to break down IPO market. What's going on in venture capital? What's going on with venture capital returns?
We have, do we have Zach from Plaid coming on today? That would be awesome if so. We have Cameron McCord from Nominal, Massive Unicorn Round that just happened with Founders Fund coming on in person, live.

**Jordi Hays** (1:11)
And of course, Max from Vast Space.

**John Coogan** (1:15)
Well, thank you so much for tuning in today. Speaking of Plaid, Plaid powers the apps you use to spend, save, borrow and invest. Securely Connecting Bank Accounts to Move Money, Fight Broad and Improve Lending Now with AI.

**Jordi Hays** (1:30)
John, why is no one talking about Daniel Gross?

**John Coogan** (1:34)
Literally no one is talking about Daniel Gross. He should be a household name. You should get into a taxi and they should be, oh, did you see how incredibly dialed Daniel Gross's AGI Trades War in January of 2024

**Jordi Hays** (1:48)
From January 14th, 2024

**John Coogan** (1:50)
Yes. This is a great website. It's, what is it? danielgross.com/agitrades. The classic Times New Roman, Serif font, 12 point, just hammering it out in the vanilla HTML. No need for style, no need for bootstrap templates.
What's that CS? Tailwind. He doesn't need tailwind for this. He just wrote it and probably marked down our HTML directly. And a lot of it has come true. It's interesting because a lot of them are framed as just like open-ended questions. But if you think about, you know, if you believe in AGI and then you go through the questions, like you will see exactly what happened over the last two years. And this has been the like the underpinning thesis of situational awareness in many ways. Daniel Gross was an anchor of the fund, that of course is...

**Jordi Hays** (2:47)
And it's particularly relevant today because I'll read the intro.

**John Coogan** (2:49)
Yes.

**Jordi Hays** (2:49)
This is January 14th, 2024, over two years ago. He says, I think we can all agree that GPT-4 completes many tasks at human level proficiency. It is imperfect in odd ways. It can write software like a smart MIT undergrad, but can't do basic task planning like an entry-level EA. It speaks all languages but can barely do math. Suppose the progress doesn't stop, just like GPT-4 was better than 3 GPT-5 is capable of basic, agentic behavior, i.e. able to accept a task, work on it for a while and return results. Nailed it. Of course, today, OpenAI has released GPT-54, which does exactly this quite well. The reviews are coming in and they are quite, quite good. Daniel continues, some modest fraction of Upwork tasks can now be done with a handful of electrons. Suppose everyone has an agent like this they can hire. Suppose everyone has 1,000 agents like this they can hire. What does one do in a world like this?

**John Coogan** (3:53)
Let's go through them one by one. There's 17, 18 questions, something like that. First, let me tell you about Labelbox, Reinforcement Learning Environments, Voice Robotics, EVALS and Expert Human Data. Labelbox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. So, he kicks it off with an easy question. In a post-AGI world, where does the value accrue? People were debating this at the time. Application layer versus foundation model layer versus infrastructure layer. Value has definitely accrued to the infrastructure.

**Jordi Hays** (4:25)
Versus the air layer. I mean, even post-AGI, John's new haircut is paying.