Dangerously Rosy Earnings Estimates Will Plunge Stocks When They Adjust | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (0:45)
Earnings expectations are extremely elevated. We have the largest deviation for earnings expectations for 26, 2026 from the long-term growth trend going back to 1900 ever on record.
Now, that doesn't mean the markets are going to crash tomorrow. However, every time we've had these types of deviations historically, you have a reversion in earnings due to some event, recession, financial event, credit event, whatever it is. There will be some event that causes an unwinding of these expectations and earnings, and then markets have to revalue. Then that's where you get this unwinding of the market, whether it's a bubble or not, who knows? But that's where you're going to get a much deeper correction, 15, 20, 30 percent.

**Adam Taggart** (1:32)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money, I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you back at the end of another week. For another Weekly Market Recap with my good friend, the Fit as a Fiddle Portfolio Manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (1:45)
I've always wondered about that. What does fit as a fiddle actually mean, right? Where does that come from?

**Adam Taggart** (1:51)
Well, I'm kind of guessing it comes from Ireland because of the fiddle. So I picked it because-

**Lance Roberts** (1:55)
How does a fiddle fit? That's, you know, because like you say, that guy's fit as a fiddle. So it's great. It means he's healthy. But what does that have to do with it? I've always wondered about that.
It's, you know, I don't know where it actually came from. I've always wondered what it actually meant because a fiddle can't really be fit, right?

**Adam Taggart** (2:13)
Well, maybe it's kind of got like a narrow middle, right? It's not like a fat thing.

**Lance Roberts** (2:18)
Then I could be fit as a cello.

**Adam Taggart** (2:21)
You could be, but then I don't know if you'd be all that fit. That'd kind of be like a backhanded compliment.

**Lance Roberts** (2:26)
Exactly. Funny story. Funny story. I had to go to the doctor yesterday with my wife. And so they were doing some kind of the basic kind of test stuff, when you go in for an appointment. And so they do the weight and they do the blood test and they do her height. Well, for 15 years, I've been married to this woman and she has claimed for years that she is five foot five and a half. Five foot five and a half. And the kids are all taller than her. And so she's the shortest person in the whole family. And the kids have been telling her for years, like there is no way on hell that you are five foot five and a half. And so they measured her yesterday to measure her height. They come back and says you're 165.5.
And she's like, what does that mean? I go, what centimeters honey? And she goes, well, what does that mean? I'm five foot five and a half, right? And I was like, no, you're like five foot four, barely.

**Adam Taggart** (3:30)
Barely.

**Lance Roberts** (3:31)
Barely five, four. And so she is completely devastated now because she has sworn for years that she is five foot five and a half and she is now five, four. And she's trying, she's going through the grieving process now.

**Adam Taggart** (3:45)
Well, tell her what happens to all of us. I know I've lost like a half inch already from my height. And I thought you were going into dangerous territory. I thought you were going to start to share her weight. So good thing you didn't.

**Lance Roberts** (3:57)
I'm not stupid.

**Adam Taggart** (3:58)
Yeah, nice save on that one. But your wife, I've met her. She is definitely fit as a fiddle, applies to her. So anyways, I used fit as a fiddle one because I just got back from Ireland, I had a fantastic time there with my daughter. Sadly, I came back without my phone and with the flu. So, we're going to keep this one relatively short. Yeah, I've actually got a lot of stories.