Dan Ivascyn: Secular Shifts, Tail Risks, and Portfolio Resilience

**Greg Hall** (0:00)
Please stay tuned after the conclusion of the podcast for additional important information.
Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Accrued Interest, PIMCO's podcast dedicated to serving financial advisors and their clients. Really excited to bring to you today a discussion with Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO of PIMCO. We try to have Dan on at least a couple of times a year. We do it in January to give us a start on the year and talk about what we're expecting. We reconnect with Dan around this time, see what's happened, maybe what we got right, what we got wrong, and what we're thinking for the balance of the year. Lucky enough to have Dan in New York City here with us today, so we can do this in person. Hey, Dan, welcome. Thanks for joining us.

**Dan Ivascyn** (0:43)
Great to be here, Greg. A lot going on.

**Greg Hall** (0:45)
Yeah. How are you enjoying the city this week? Got a lot going on.

**Dan Ivascyn** (0:48)
It's all right. It's all right.

**Greg Hall** (0:50)
Yeah.

**Dan Ivascyn** (0:50)
As far as personal interests in sports go, we're not exactly what I'd hoped for.

**Greg Hall** (0:55)
Should we get this out of the way before we move on with the rest? Dan is a lifelong Celtics fan. Lifelong?

**Dan Ivascyn** (1:02)
Oh, absolutely.

**Greg Hall** (1:03)
Massachusetts, we've talked about.

**Dan Ivascyn** (1:04)
Yeah.

**Greg Hall** (1:05)
Okay. And so this is a tough week for you to be in New York City.

**Dan Ivascyn** (1:09)
It's a tough week.

**Greg Hall** (1:10)
All right.

**Dan Ivascyn** (1:11)
And it's getting even more challenging, but yes.

**Greg Hall** (1:14)
It was looking better until the last seven seconds of the game last night.

**Dan Ivascyn** (1:17)
Correct. I went to bed right at the beginning of the fourth quarter, so it wasn't as traumatic as it could have been. But it's good fun. It's good fun. I know there are a lot of advisors from New York, so I don't want to be...
We should probably move on to the content.

**Greg Hall** (1:33)
I think I think advisors from New York appreciate your interest in sports, whether or not they necessarily agree with your choice of teams. But anyways, Dan, the other great thing about timing for this week is we just published our secular piece in the last day or so.
And for people listening, we've talked about this in the past, but this is something we published once a year with a goal of not looking out over the next quarter or the next six months, but actually trying to look into the future five, 10 years, identify structural themes that are going to influence markets and money making over that time period. And that piece is called Rupture and Resilience. It's available on the website. And I'm sure those of you who work with us, your account manager will be forwarding a copy. But Dan, it's just such a great opportunity to talk to you about that piece and some of our takeaways. So if it's all right with you, maybe start there and just talk about the forum process and what the debates were this time around and where you guys ended up kind of concluding your key takeaways.

**Dan Ivascyn** (2:41)
No, I'll do that. And as you know, Greg, this has always been a critically important part of our investment process.
We were doing it long before I joined the firm in the late 90s. The idea was get away from the noise and all the rapid information flow and be able to step back and look at long term trends. Market zig and zag along the way, but if you can get some of those long term themes right, you end up with good outcomes for clients. And I think Bill Gross originally came up with this idea back in the early 80s today now with X and Instagram and probably information sources I'm not even aware of that the younger generation focuses on. It's nonstop information. It's the market constantly. And the noise can create a little confusion or lead to just getting bounced around in terms of just thoughts on markets. And even in thinking about year to date market activity early in this year, pre-Iran war, markets seem to be trading based on longer term themes. And understandably now with war in Iran across the Middle East as well, this has turned into a significant energy shock. And understandably there's been a massive focus on what's going on with the conflict there. You literally see information hit about Iran and it's moving markets.
Quite considerably this week, no exception.

**Greg Hall** (4:08)