Current "Massive Deviation" Suggest Stocks Will Pullback By Up To 15% Soon | Lance Roberts

**Lance Roberts** (0:01)
The big risk here is right now is just, we've got this massive deviation that's going on kind of in the markets. You know, we're so far deviated above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving average. You're going to correct this.
Markets shouldn't trade this far away from their moving averages because they're moving averages. It can happen, it's happened in the past, but you're eventually going to get a correction back. You know, you're talking about potentially a corrective action this summer between 68, 50, and, say, 6,900 would not be outside the realm of possibility. Look, a 10 to 15% pullback would not be out of the ordinary.

**Adam Taggart** (0:43)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap featuring my very good friend, the italiphyllic portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you?

**Lance Roberts** (0:58)
Yes, I love Italian food. It's the best.

**Adam Taggart** (1:01)
That's what this is about. All things Italy, and you're, how many weeks away?

**Lance Roberts** (1:06)
I thought it was like, I use italics a lot, so.

**Adam Taggart** (1:11)
Yeah, no, literally, it literally means you like all things Italian.

**Lance Roberts** (1:14)
Exactly. No, we are three weeks, well, just like three weeks in a day. So we're good.

**Adam Taggart** (1:21)
Now, are you able to look forward to this trip with excitement or are you getting bitter about the trip because of all your calorie restriction?

**Lance Roberts** (1:29)
I am looking, so like one of the days that we're there, we're actually going to a cooking class with an Italian chef.

**Adam Taggart** (1:36)
How fun.

**Lance Roberts** (1:37)
We're going to make homemade pasta, homemade pizzas, and yeah, I'm going to eat all of it. So I'm looking forward to that part of it for sure.

**Adam Taggart** (1:45)
You're going to eat all the carbs?

**Lance Roberts** (1:47)
All the carbs. It's going to be like, I don't want meat, I don't want fruits and vegetables, just give me carbs.
They come back 15 pounds heavier, but it'll be worth it. All right.

**Adam Taggart** (1:59)
Well, look, we got lots to talk about.
And folks, starting a week ago, I officially joined Lance on the summer trim down program, and I'll give some updates on that. But more interestingly, I've got a really big hack for anybody who's kind of looking to get into better shape as the summer comes along. We'll save that for the rant. But Lance, we got some new data this week, and you've also written some reports. I want to get to all of it. If we can, let's start with the data.
We got another really surprising, I think you could say blowout payrolls report again this year. Again, above expectations, higher than anybody thought. Seems good on the surface. When you start digging below the surface, I think there's lots of things there that don't look nearly as good.

**Lance Roberts** (2:54)
Right, don't dig below the surface. Just go with the headline.

**Adam Taggart** (2:56)
Just go with the headlines, okay. Well, the reason why it's actually important to talk about below the surface is, and I think we can debate, there's a legit debate to be had in the jobs market. But I want to marry it to the data we also got this week, the latest Umich consumer sentiment, which is I think the lowest it's ever been.
It's just rock bottom.

**Lance Roberts** (3:21)
Yeah. Discard that one. That whole, starting about two years ago in particular, the whole Michigan Consumer Index started giving a lot of readings, continues to do that because it's very politically biased. If you take a look at the breakdown between Democrats and Republicans, it's primarily that lowest reading is skewed by Democrats.

**Adam Taggart** (3:44)
Got it.

**Lance Roberts** (3:45)
So if you go look at a good counter-indicator to that, is go look at the Conference Board measure of sentiment, which is weaker and that's really going on in the economy. We definitely have a slowing down in the economy and consumers are certainly under stress. No doubt about that whatsoever. But the Conference Board Index is a much better measure right now than University of Michigan because of the polling.

**Adam Taggart** (4:09)
Okay. A couple of things on that. You're taking it actually where I wanted to go with it.
But folks, long-term viewers of this channel have seen me interview Joanna Shue, the woman who actually compiles the Umich data. If you'd like me to have her on again soon to dig into the numbers and ask her why they're as low as they are right now. Yes, there was a political party skew to the results. I think that's widely accepted at this point, but they keep getting worse. Even the trajectory is still not good.