Crypto Is Dead... But Not How You Think

**Ran Neuner** (0:00)
So, after we were live yesterday, Bitcoin went into absolute freefall. Here, you can see it over here on the charts. And the one thing about this absolute freefall is that I'm getting PTSD. The reason why I'm getting PTSD about this absolute freefall is because, as I said to you before, I remember the 2022 bear market, and I remember that after we touched the 200-day moving average over here, and we broke below the bear flag over here. You can see how steep that correction actually was. That's what I was worried about yesterday, to get this very steep correction on the way down, and that's the PTSD coming back. In the meantime, that freefall actually cost a lot of traders. I mean, if you look at that, at what happened yesterday, we got $1.73 billion of liquidations in the last 24 hours, and that is the biggest liquidation since October 10th. So you can see over here, that's October 10th liquidation. You can see over there, that's that over here, and that's where we are since then. So the last 24 hours have been the biggest liquidation on Bitcoin, or in Crypto, since the 10-10 collapse. Now we all remember the damage that the 10-10 collapse actually did to the Crypto ecosystem. I would argue that that's why Crypto actually isn't recovering, because this red candle over here basically wiped out everybody. And so again, you got a massive liquidation. I don't know why you got a massive liquidation, because I mean, it was pretty obvious that if you break down below the bear flag, that it's going to be a big move down, and we're going to go into freefall. And I said that for a long time. If only the people had been watching us, maybe they wouldn't have got liquidated. Anyway, today, there are many people that are very, very, very angry about what's going on in the market, and they are venting their anger at Sela. They are saying effectively that Sela is the one that actually killed Bitcoin. And to an extent, I actually agree that part of what's going on here is the fact that Sela has in inverted commas leveraged up Bitcoin and basically killed Bitcoin through the liquidation. I should show you the numbers now. But people are getting angry here, right? RanXBT says, the Ponzi backfired so badly. Wow. Then you've got Taiki. Taiki says, rotated some BTC to Zcash. Zcash is now my biggest bag. My SDRC Bitcoin thesis partially invalidated due to Sela mismanaging it in my eyes. Then you've got Tom Crown says, Sela, can I get a refund? I think I need that kidney back, and that's in response to Sela's Sela kidney, if you must, but keep your Bitcoin. A lot of people, a lot of people are very angry with Sela. They blaming Sela for this. I got this from a friend of mine. I'm not going to mention his name. I woke up this morning. You see, he sent me a message at 2.08 in the morning. It says, Sela is finally effed. MicroStrategy won't last the summer. The good news is that I've spoken to my friend, and MicroStrategy will last the summer. But there is a scenario where MSDR can actually go to zero. I'm going to show you that scenario of MSDR actually going to zero here. So, people are calling Crypto dead. MSDR can go to zero. I'll show you at exactly what point it is worth zero. And I will show you that live. I've got a spreadsheet. I've got a model for here, right here. There's the model over there. We'll go through this model, and I'll show you how MSDR can actually go to zero much sooner than you expect. So if you're holding MSDR, you want to do that. Yeah, and I want to talk about Crypto's dead, because Crypto does seem to be dead again. Every time Crypto has been dead in the past, that's when it's been the best time to buy. But I'm not sure whether or not this time is the best time to buy. So that's what we're going to be talking about today. So welcome, welcome, welcome. Joanne Perry, welcome. I did see you on the screen, but I was trying to do the intro to the show. So Joanne, welcome. Greetings from the UK. Greetings to everyone else. I see you guys here. You know the drill. I'll bring you alpha, you bring me likes. We have a symbiotic relationship. All right, let's get into the alpha of the day. So people angry, people angry at SELA because they believe that SELA is the one who caused the spare market. There's a lot of people not talking about SELA getting liquidated. SELA ain't getting liquidated, but there is a road where MSTR actually goes to zero, right? And it starts off with this chart over here. This is a chart that usually saves us, right? The chart that usually saves us is STRC. STRC is, yeah, let me show you the chart. The chart that saves us usually is STRC. STRC is the mechanism that SELA uses to raise Bitcoin. It's a preferred stock. A preferred stock is not that, because you don't have a claim against the company for it. It's a stock. But it does get a fixed dividend, right? Well, it does get a dividend, not a fixed dividend. Now, when this thing goes to 100, then, you see, I'm ready. It's a Freudian slip when I say when this thing goes to zero. It's not going to zero. When this thing goes to 100, then SELA can sell these shares into the market and actually buy Bitcoin. That's what he's done every other month. You can see he did it over here. You can see he did it over here, and you can see he did it over here. The only thing is that now this thing's gone back down and it went down to 95.59, and it's nowhere near the 100, and we are already on the 3rd of June. Now, I say that I don't think that this thing is going to even re-peg this month. So what is SELA trying to do? SELA is now trying to pay the coupon bi-monthly so that this thing pegs bi-monthly. Now, I have a big principle issue with this. There is no reason in the world why this thing needs to be at $100. They can increase the dividend. They can make a dividend every single day. It does not mean that this thing has to go to $100. There is no reason why STRC needs to go to $100. You cannot redeem it for $100. Therefore, it's not worth $100. And SELA strategy is to keep increasing the dividend until it goes back to $100. Now, he says, yeah, below $95, recommend a dividend rate increase of 50 basis points for the next period. Between $95 and $98.99, a dividend rate increase of 0.25%. Let me say this categorically, there is no way that if SELA increases the dividend by 0.25, that this thing goes to $100. In fact, this thing ain't going to $100 anytime soon. Now, it ain't going to go to $0, but it can easily depeg and go down to like 50 or 70 And there's no reason why it should go back to $100. We can have a discussion as long as you want. There is no reason why STRC needs to go back to $100, other than it's a magic number that we concocted in our heads and said, okay, it has to go there. Now, the one share that actually can go to zero is MSTR. It can go to zero. And I'll show you how it can go to zero. And before you guys all shouted at me and said, this is not my work, I did get the inspiration for this spreadsheet from this account over here. And I'll show you the account because I think it's only fair.