CRITICAL Bitcoin Discovery! (Don't Miss This)

**Drew** (0:00)
I'm sitting on a mountain of evidence that Bitcoin might be getting ready to absolutely pop to the upside after the mass confusion and max fear levels have taken the crypto market by storm. Over the last few months, we're going to take a look at this and make some sense of this massive amount of data and information that I've been compiling on Bitcoin over the cycles. I've done all the research and I have all the confluence to bring you on today's video to make sense of it all and to get a good bellwether of what to expect for Bitcoin price over the next few months and into the end of the year. At the end of the video, I'll tell you exactly how long we should expect for this bear market to have hold of crypto markets. Without further ado, let's get into it. I'm going to work backwards to make some sense of all of this information. So on the lower band here, you have the MACD, the weekly MACD with moving averages that once they cross, signal a return to massive, massive price action to the upside. And these have signaled four times in Bitcoin's history. Now, another metric that I've used over the past few cycles is the price that it costs to produce a Bitcoin coming in and usually ending up being right at around the bottom of Bitcoin's price after bear markets take hold. These prices to produce Bitcoin, once we hit max fear levels, are marked here in the green line. The green dotted line represents the price to produce currently sitting at around $74,000 to $75,000.
But the last time we had a bear market take hold of Bitcoin and crypto, the price to produce Bitcoin at the time frame of FTX was right at around $20,000. Another point of confluence, back in 2019, you had the February 2019 crash where Bitcoin fell from its local high at $19,000 all the way down to $3,200. The price to produce at that time was $4,000. If you look at the price to produce at the second Bitcoin bear market where the price fell down to $3,200, the price to produce Bitcoin ended up being the new floor of where Bitcoin's bottom was found. Fast forward to 2021 when you had the Celcius collapse, Luna collapse and FTX, the price to produce Bitcoin as of August 2022 was actually sitting around $20,000 and we dipped slightly below that down to $15,500 in the light of FTX, but that ended up being the bounce point as well. Now, currently where we sit, the price to produce Bitcoin is above us. Thus bringing me to the feeling I'm having a lot of fun buying spot Bitcoin in this environment. But this price to produce Bitcoin matters in terms of being a signal, a point of confluence. Because if you take a look at the MACD, the MACD is actually getting ready to flip on the moving averages to the upside and give us that bullish momentum once again. There is some key points that we have to keep in mind as we're approaching these two moving averages crossing. Yes, in general, I think this is very bullish. The structure on the market side for money flow as well, signalling that we're trying to make a move to the upside. Momentum waves have printed double green dots, and we only get these signals once every few years. But these momentum wave to the downside green dot signals also match up with the MACD flipping bullish. Right here in February 2015, right here in the timeframe of February 2019, here it's September 22, and now we have the same situation happening in today's market. So why bring up the price to produce Bitcoin in context to this is just so we can measure out how far below the price to produce did buyers actually fall before finding that true bottom. Here in December 2018, it was about 23% below the price to produce. Here in the 2022 bear market, the price of Bitcoin fell about 22%, again below the price to produce in that mega bottom. Where we're sitting currently, let's measure out how far below that price we've fallen, right there, 22%.
Let's take a look at how far below the price to produce Bitcoin we have fallen in that macro washout down to 59k. Look at that, right at around 21.2%. An argument can be made that this bounce below the price to produce is been proven to be that pico low point of Bitcoin's price over the last three bear markets. And how long we have until this MACD signal flips bullish? Well, it looks like these moving averages, if everything continues on current trajectory, will be meeting up with each other at the end of March. And once these MACD moving averages flip in history, we've shown that there is one last final washout to the downside, blushing the market just one more time before starting the party back up again. You can see this shown in 2022, but as well in the 2019 market, this market was a much smaller market cap for Bitcoin, so the ball was easy to get started to the upside once again, only to be rudely interrupted by COVID-19 and then back off to the races after that washout. Now, the interesting part about all of this data is taking a look at how long it will likely be until we see the good times return. In a smaller market cap for Bitcoin back in the 2019 bear market, it only took about 90 days until price had broken back up to the upside, broken structure of its downtrend, and started to move back up. In 2022, the market cap had grown quite exponentially, and it took around 160 days to see that price action return to the upside. So because of the increase in market cap between these two bull markets, it takes twice as long to see that price action begin to move. Now, if we move with that same assumption, that would actually mean that our time frame to dig ourselves out of this recent downtrend is going to be bringing us all the way to November of 2026 That'd be grueling price action for many people that don't have long-term holding process for Bitcoin, but in the short term for me, I am super excited about the idea of being able to buy cheap Bitcoin for up to a year's time from now. This is also an amazing side note. There's another indicator highlighted by Kaleo. The trailer for Dune 1 and 2 both happened at the bottom of the last bear market. Part 1 trailer released here in September of 2020 Part 2 released April of 2023 And part 3 trailer just released yesterday, folks. So this might be the action that we need to see the Bitcoin price start to move to the upside. But I feel confluence that this is going to take some time for the money flow to return back to the upside and for this bullish MACD moving average to flip bullish in a very, very strong fashion. Once again, I think it's just a matter of time for this bounce to come. And I'm thinking I'm looking at the bottom right now with the price to produce being just above us. And we're bouncing off a lot of Bitcoin ETF support here in this range. Bitcoin has absorbed a lot of bad news over the last few weeks and really hasn't lost much more than we've already seen with the latest collapse down to $60,000. The dust is starting to settle and the future is becoming clearer than ever to me. I'm buying spot Bitcoin. Let me know in the comments what you are doing, waiting for lower lows or are you buying in these market environments right now? Let me know and make sure to join our Discord. If you are involved in trading, you get access to a massive community of traders that are all bouncing ideas off each other and making sure that we are looking in the right direction for where the markets are going to go. Till next time, Drew out.