Clarity Act Progress Boosts Bitcoin | Trading the Markets w/ Kris Bullock

**Bijan Maleki** (0:06)
And we are live. Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another edition of Trading the Markets. This is the show where we talk trades, we look at and we take your questions. If you have any questions, just drop them here in the live chat on Discord or on the platform or even on X, because we're live there as well, and we will try to get to as many as we can. So interesting news going on today in the market. The odds of the Clarity Act passing have increased, and then Bitcoin jumped up a bit on that, but then they both pulled back. So I don't know where we really are, but we're going to dive into all of that and see where we are on that front.
I see the questions coming in. We're going to get to as many as possible, but Kris, happy Wednesday. What do we got today?

**Kris Bullock** (1:03)
So yeah, I want to spend a little bit of time talking about where Bitcoin is at to start with. There's been some good conversation in the Discord and the HiveChat channel over the last couple of days that I'm going to kind of draw from. And so I want to talk about what Bitcoin is doing and why I'm a little bit skeptical as to how far this rally is going to go. And then I want to get into looking at sort of the financial conditions and talk about what I need to see, like what exactly I'm looking for to feel confident in a much stronger, longer Bitcoin bull market. And so I want to talk about that.
And then, yeah, then we'll get into all kinds of stuff. We'll talk about ETH, we'll talk about Jito and Ondo and some other ones that are looking really good. And we'll talk about hyperliquid and just get into it. Yeah, so that's what I've got for today.

**Bijan Maleki** (1:55)
I love it. Let's add Kanton to that list as well. Definitely want to chart them, what they're doing.
Amar, I'm just front running the questions because I know we're going to get a Kanton one. But Kris, I dive into it, take it away.

**Kris Bullock** (2:08)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So looking at Bitcoin, like here we are. It does look good. Like I admit we're on it. We have a nice rally going here. It's not too overextended. The DMARC count is still low at only a three. Note that we are, let me turn my highlighter on, note that we are kind of right at a resistance level here based off of this little cluster right here. But I like how we've kind of poked back up into this range. Like we had this big year and we lost that range and broke down and set this new range here. And we've broken back up into it. And so far we're holding, I mean, it's only one, well, it's actually technically two days closed back up into this range. So I like that. That's bullish. We are seeing some good things happening here. And even if I go over to my weekly chart framework here and look at Bitcoin, it's on the verge of flipping a weekly Megatrend signal. It's above the line. It needs to close two weeks above this line with some momentum here.
This is what I'm looking at right here. So it needs to close a couple above here with momentum. And then if we zoom in on this one here, this one also looks good and in that it lost its red dot. Typically these red dots are momentum signals. And so losing a red dot tells me that the downside momentum is waning, which of course is good. That's what we want to see. So like I said, it's looking good. We also had Atreides flip green a couple days ago, which is always a good sign.
It generally does a really good job. I like that it works more on the daily time front too. And so again, we're seeing positive things. But my contention is that there are other things that I'm seeing that tells me that I don't know how much juice this really has. I don't know how far this is really going to go. I suspect we're going to get another run up to maybe these moving averages here, either the 20-week or the 200-day, and get rejected kind of like we did here.
And let me tell you why. And this came up in the Discord yesterday. But the reason I think that is because of a couple of different things. One of them being ETF flows. We know over the last however long year-ish whatever, the biggest marginal buyer of Bitcoin has been institutions. That's what's really kind of kept it going. And we know it's had multiple terrible weeks in a row. And actually on the year, year to date, we're negative flows by about $5.5 billion. And so over the last three weeks, it's just been barely flat. It's been barely into the positives, coming out of a bunch of several negative weeks in a row. So this is telling us that institutions dumped a bunch of Bitcoin, and then they haven't really been buying back. It's been very, very neutral. So if institutions are the biggest marginal buyer and they're not buying, well, what else do we need? So we need retail buyers. So let's look at retail buyers. And one of the ways I like to gauge retail buying is by the Coinbase Premium Index. And what this tells us is the Coinbase Premium Index means, is the price of Bitcoin higher than the global average on Coinbase? And so if it's higher on Coinbase, that tells you that we're getting a strong retail bid from US buyers specifically. I mean, Coinbase is available in other countries too, but it's very U.S.-centric. And typically, throughout Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin doesn't really sustain big rallies unless it's getting a strong buy, a strong bid from US retail buyers.