**Tony Edward** (0:05)
Hey folks, welcome into The Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host Tony Edward. On your way in, please hit that subscribe button, as well as the thumbs up button, and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform, such as Spotify or Apple, please be sure to follow and leave a five star rating. For those of you who are watching on video, you can tell I am not in my studio. I'm currently in Las Vegas recording from my hotel room. I'm attending the Money Show Las Vegas event, where I'm talking about crypto. In fact, today I did a session talking about tokenization. So I wanted to get you guys an update on the Clarity Act and the market, because we're seeing some positive updates there. Let's get into Bitcoin charts. Okay, folks, right now Bitcoin trading over $65,000, currently at $65,523.
So we're seeing the continuation of this relief rally we've been tracking, where we've highlighted that there's a weekly bullish divergence on the chart, which is very good. On the daily chart, the MACD shows the bulls are in full control, the MACDs in the green, and the RSI has room to run.
It is currently above the neutral zone.
However, this is where I'm getting a little bit concerned, because if this is just a relief rally and it takes us up to $70,000, $72,000, will it be rejected by the 200-day moving average because we're still in that downtrend? Or is it going to break through and confirm the bottom of the market? Today, I put out a newsletter with a lot of different metrics and factors that are confirming that the bottom is close if not already in, such as the Bitcoin supply in loss, hitting levels that we've seen at previous bear markets. We're really going to have to be patient and see what happens. Maybe we get some solid news around the Clarity Act that pushes the market higher and it allows us to break through. But I think the rally is going to go higher. I think altcoins are going to follow and many of the altcoin charts actually look very bullish. Now nothing is guaranteed, so we have to be patient and wait for full confirmation. But as mentioned, the weekly chart has that beautiful bullish divergence, which we've seen at previous bear market bottoms. So let's see if it has the strength again to break through the respective moving average and it's playing out accordingly. In fact, the MACD on the weekly just flipped bullish. So there was just a bullish cross. So another factor that's on our side. And the inverse of that, the USDT stablecoin dominance. And of course, there's a bearish divergence that has been playing out there. So we're seeing confirmation on multiple fronts. This is very, very good. In fact, Bitcoin with its current move appears to be playing out a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. And let's hope that it continues because this Wyckoff accumulation schematic shows us going above 90K.
Now, there will be pullbacks along the way, but it's looking like potentially that this rally could take us into September. And obviously Q4 is pretty much always for markets. So let's see, right? Again, no guarantees here, but we can look at the data, the charts and the metrics and form our thesis. And right now we're seeing a lot on the side of the bottom is close or has already been put in. I love what Annalisa blockchain backers shared on his X account. It's really good. He did an in-depth breakdown on different metrics that he's looking at, saying the bottom is in. So first he says on-chain data shows that Bitcoin in the loss, the supply and loss has already hit the FTX crash levels of 2022 and previous bear market levels. And of course, Michael Saylor was forced to sell. So that's kind of catalyst. While you didn't have a collapse, I mean, it's not necessary that we must have a collapse, but capitulation, right? Things like Michael Saylor having to sell is certainly a huge factor.
He says here the technical behavior is the same as if FTX has already collapsed after back testing the capitulation breakdown level from back in February.
And he says the technical indicators are identical to that time period, as shown here with XRP from 2022 So, he's also highlighting the bullish divergence that I've been tracking as well.
He says the total market cap for this respective bear market is the same depths as 2022, including the actual FTX crash lapse landing on the 300-week moving average, which held it during all past bears, including FTX and the pandemic COVID-19 crash in March 2020
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