Can the U.S. and Iran cease-fire proposals lead to a deal?

**Brian Lehrer** (0:05)
From WNYC Studios, I'm Brian Lehrer. This is my Daily Politics Podcast. It's Thursday, March 26th.
We have two very interestingly placed people, I think, with us to discuss what feels like a turning point in the Iran War. Turning point because the US and Iran have both offered ceasefire plans, though they are quite the opposite of each other in important ways. Turning point because reporting indicates President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may now want different things, an off ramp in Trump's case, prolonged fighting in Netanyahu's. Turning point because the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon is seriously deepening. Turning point because the new Supreme Leader of Iran either will or won't keep the loyalty of the Revolutionary Guard, that's who has all the guns, right? The regime could rise or fall on that. And turning point perhaps because the US is sending thousands more troops to the region with this threat from White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, if Iran rejects the US ceasefire terms.

**SPEAKER_2** (1:13)
President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell. Iran should not miscalculate again.

**Brian Lehrer** (1:20)
Well, sometimes he bluffs, but there is that. And all of that is a lot, right? Let's discuss. With us now is Kian Tajbakhsh, International Relations Professor at NYU, also a fellow of the Committee on Global Thought, as they call it at Columbia University. Part of his background is that he was arrested during Iran's Green Movement protest in 2009 And you may have heard his name in the news a number of years ago when he was released as part of the Iran nuclear deal under President Obama. He is also author of the books, The Promise of the City, and Creating Local Democracy in Iran, State Building and the Politics of Decentralization. And also with us, William Christou, reporter for The Guardian based in Beirut, focusing on human rights investigations and migration issues. So William and Kian, thank you both very much for coming on with us. Welcome to WNYC.

**Kian Tajbakhsh** (2:20)
It's a delight to be on with you, Brian.

**Brian Lehrer** (2:22)
William, I see you wrote up the difference between the US and Iranians ceasefire proposals for The Guardian. So I'm gonna get right into the weeds here. I think our listeners might appreciate that. To see if you think there may be a basis for a deal on the Iran side, from what I've read, they want no more killing of its leaders now or in the future after the war ends, reparations for the economic damage done to Iran by the war, and recognizing Iran's sovereign right to control the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump plan is in public, but as it's described in some news reports, he wants no more of Iran supporting proxy militias, limit its missile program, something regarding nuclear development and uranium enrichment, and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, maybe through international control of the passage. Can you shed any more light on either plan as a way to start out?

**William Christou** (3:24)
Yeah, I think the 15-point plan from the US, the five-point plan from Iran, they couldn't be further away from each other. Both sides are describing each other's starting points as maximalist, unreasonable, and unacceptable.
And I think what's important is not so much the substance of the plans, it's the fact that the White House is looking for a way out and that intermediaries are trying to keep a diplomatic off-ramp sort of in the cards. We're increasingly seeing the White House indicating that they want an out to this war. Iran, I think, is actually might have a little bit more leverage in this situation. I think they're not trying to get another ceasefire that collapses in the next six months or a ceasefire that just sees the US and Israel prepare for another war. They want to exact the price to teach the US and Israel a lesson. And so I think it's good that we're seeing intermediaries floating proposals in the beginning of diplomacy that had really broken down over the last couple of weeks. The two ceasefire plans are really far away from each other and a lot needs to be done. But the important thing is that diplomacy is finally starting up again.

**Brian Lehrer** (4:41)
So given what you just said, are any of your sources seeing these two plans as the basis for a negotiated ceasefire? Maybe Iran gives up its regional military ambitions, the proxies, the US and Israel give up their threats to kill more Iranian leaders, no regime change, and help Iran pay for damage from the war. Is anyone seeing anything like that as a path to peace?