Can Global Tourism Sustain Its Momentum This Summer?

**Tim Elliott** (0:00)
This is the Morning Drive at Mira Business FM. Fuel prices are climbing. Health alerts back in the headlines, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are raising fresh concerns for airlines, and of course global tourism. So how resilient is the travel industry heading into the second half of the year? This morning, we're joined by global tourism strategist, Anita Mendiratta. She is special advisor to the secretary general of UN Tourism, and hopefully we'll take a closer look at the risks, the recovery and what travelers and businesses should expect next. Anita, thank you for joining us. I know it's early in the morning in Brazil where you are, but we appreciate you coming on.

**Anita Mendiratta** (0:44)
Good morning, Tim. Thank you very much for the invitation.

**Tim Elliott** (0:47)
You're very welcome. So the travel industry has shown some strong recovery momentum this year. We keep talking about this kind of revenge travel boom, as well, but with fuel and health and airspace security flashing amber all at the same time, are we about to hit a hard ceiling on global tourism growth? Just how vulnerable is growth to rising fuel prices and this kind of broader economic uncertainty that we're all experiencing?

**Anita Mendiratta** (1:19)
Indeed. And Tim, sadly, it's interesting that times of crisis is usually when he exposes how important tourism is to the global economy. I've never quite understood the term revenge travel, because in many ways, this is coming out of the COVID crisis. Revenge against whom? Mother nature? It was about the world being shut down. And we're finding quite a sad case of deja vu as we now look at what's happening with the conflict in the Middle East, because we're finding distinctly, while it's a regional conflict geopolitically, it's having economic conflict impact around the world because of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact particularly on energy. But once again, it's demonstrating the vital role of travel and tourism, and especially the critical role of aviation in keeping the world connected, because those same aircraft that are taking travelers have cargo in the bellies most often. So it also impacts global trade as well, not just only travel and tourism. But to your question, it's very much demonstrating the strength of the industry, because it's showing how strongly the industry is working with other vital parts of the global industry. So if we look at communications, transport, health care, all of those working with travel and tourism to ensure that people and goods do not stop moving, even when their challenge is, whether it's to jet fuel, to actual air corridors, whatever the challenge may be.

**Tim Elliott** (2:41)
Maybe revenge travel is a phrase should be rebound travel. I'm not sure. We need to work on a better phraseology piece there. Look, Anita, when tensions flare around major maritime and economic corridors, like the Strait of Hormuz, aviation is hit by a double whammy. So jet fuel prices spike straight away.
Critical airspace corridors become compromised. So how are global airlines managing the cost and maybe even the time penalties of avoiding high-risk zones right now?

**Anita Mendiratta** (3:14)
And I'm going to add in another element to that as well, Tim. And it's actually the currency of confidence, because no matter how much aircraft are provided, if people don't feel confident traveling, no one's getting on the aircraft. So it's also the impact on currents on the, ultimately the confidence of travel as well. But when it comes to airlines, these are some of the finest leaders in the world. And that's one of the reasons why I'm in Brazil right now, because IATA, the International Air Transport Association, is actually having its AGM in the next two days. And that's where global CEOs are coming together to really discuss what in the world is happening with global aviation and what does the runway look like looking forward. These leaders are ultimately, they're trained to deal with crisis. They're trained to look at crisis, whether it's in air passage corridors, in jet fuel crisis like we're having at the moment, if there are healthcare issues. So they work very, very carefully to manage exactly how they utilize the air networks that they operate through, the aircraft that they utilize, the crew, and importantly, how do they manage customer loyalty, whether it's travelers or it's cargo customers as well. So that's been a very difficult time. We never anticipated this in particular coming out of COVID. We never expected another globally impacting crisis for aviation, travel and trade, but we're into it. And interestingly, we're seeing a lot of the expertise that was developed through the COVID crisis being reactivated now, because ultimately, aviation is an ecosystem. It's airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airports, and air traffic control, all having to work together to keep aviation moving. So it's a much stronger, much more tightly connected, interdependent global network now, which thankfully is able to navigate the challenges that we're dealing with, whether it's again, the flight, the price of jet fuel, or the fact that there are significant blocks of the world where they simply can't travel through in terms of the air corridors. Russia has been locked out for the last several years. Pakistan has locked out to many airlines. And now we have the Middle East with Iran being completely blocked out. That has a significant impact on airlines in terms of how they navigate literally their ability to keep flying and keep passengers and cargo moving.