Brace For Another Big Leg Down In Crypto!

**Ran** (0:01)
All right, last night, we finally had the market capitulation on crypto. Just look at what happened yesterday on the chart. So we broke the structure and we went down with one big red candle in Bitcoin. And if you look at where that candle actually ended, it was around 61,000. So we wicked all the way down to 61,000. And the reason why I say that it was the capitulation yesterday is not because of what happened to the Bitcoin chart. But if you look at the alts, what you can see is that the alts actually also broke down. So for the first alts to break down were the major alts. We got Solana, which is now under $70. It was actually trading, try and give it to you, 6620 That's on this chart where the Solana chart went to. Then even Hyperliquid and Nier Protocol, which you can kind of sell the dialings of this cycle. Even Hyperliquid and Nier Protocol actually broke down. You had Nier, which yesterday was trading at $3.08, now trading at $2.38. It was at $2.29. And I guess that is partially due to, or maybe in part due to the fact that Arthur Hayes actually came out and said that he's selling his Nier position, and he's selling his Hype position. Okay, so he's come out and basically said, he's selling his Nier position, he's selling his Hype position, and he'll tell us why in an essay that comes out next week, Tuesday, which we're going to try and get Arthur on the show next week, Tuesday, to actually talk to us about that. Which is kind of weird because just a week ago, I mean, this was a week ago, right? This was the 30th of May, he said, fuck TradFi, fuck the Clarity Act, Meow Hype goes to $150. And today, he actually went and sold. Anyway, in the capitulation of the last 24 hours, we have had $1.79 billion in liquidations in the crypto market. According to this, now, I don't really think that this can be real, but according to this, that's the biggest weekly capitulation or liquidation event that we've had. Even, I mean, that here, this is the 10th of October. So, I'm not sure that this is correct, but what you can see is that in this week, we've had some big, big, big liquidations. Fear and greed, also now at 12, gone back down into extreme fear and demand for Bitcoin, completely, completely contracting, actually compared to the TeraLuna collapse period. So, we're seeing the beginning of the capitulation, and I say the beginning of the capitulation, because unfortunately, I don't think that this is the end of the pain. I think that this is the beginning of the end. It's the beginning of the big capitulation, but it's certainly not the end. And that's why I tweeted earlier and I said, it's starting to feel like a bottom, but it's not there yet. It's not exactly at a bottom yet. It is starting to feel more like a bottom, and the reason why I say starting to feel more like a bottom is because of what I'm seeing on the charts and because of what I'm seeing on Crypto Twitter, and because of what I'm seeing on Chain. When I look at the charts, you see that Bitcoin has actually broken down, but Bitcoin hasn't put in, hasn't swept the lows yet. So that's the lows of February. That is 59,967.
And what you can see is that Bitcoin actually hasn't swept those lows. Now, what we know about bottoms in charts is that you see, what happens is you go down, but then you go down and you sweep the lows. Every lows is exactly the same. So you go down here and then you sweep the lows here.
You can see pretty much every bottom in Crypto. There's another bottom. So go down and then sweep the lows again.
Go down, sweep the lows again. And in this case, we haven't swept the lows on Bitcoin yet. On ETH, we have actually swept the lows. So if you look at the ETH chart, that's the ETH chart. We have just swept the lows. I mean, it's too small to even talk about. On Bitcoin, we also hit the 200-week moving average. So, which is a very key point when it actually comes to Bitcoin. So in Bitcoin, historically, usually the 200-week moving average marks the bottom of bear market. So if you look at 2017, that's 2017 over there. Let me give you guys a better view. That's 2017 over there. You can see that we just touched the 200-week moving average. Here we broke, this is COVID, we broke below slightly for a short period of time. In 2021, we broke below the 200-week moving average. We retested it, and you can see here that from the 200-week moving average, when we broke below the 200-week moving average, which was here, we still went down about another 35% on Bitcoin. So this is the key level, and as you can see, we just tagged that key level over here. And that's why I say it's probably the beginning of the capitulation. It's not exactly the end of the capitulation. And I think I agree with Chris Bunecki. He says, early signs of emotional capitulation emerging, but far from apathy. And what he means is that in a market bottom, when you look at a market bottom, and this is what a market bottom actually looks like. So we'll go back to this market bottom over here. That is a market bottom. And I'll show you another market bottom over here. You can see there's a characteristic about, why is this not adjusting automatically? Let's quickly get it here. Okay, so when you see market bottoms, and you saw one there, and you see another one over here, there is a characteristic that you can't see the one. So there we go again, I'll show it to you. There is a characteristic around all market bottoms. And the characteristic around all market bottoms is that you have two kinds, two elements that are required in a capitulation. The first element that is required in a capitulation is price pain. And we're starting to feel the price pain, going from 125,000 in Bitcoin, all the way down to 63,000, or 59,000, or whatever it is. That gives you price pain.