Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 7th, 2026

**SPEAKER_2** (0:02)
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

**Jonathan Ferro** (0:11)
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Annmarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.
Julian Emmanuel of Evercore maintaining a $77.50 S&P year-end price target, writing, stocks have become more volatile as the wall of worry is large around AI adoption, spend regulation, profit sustainability and capital raise. Julian, join us now for more. Julian, good morning.

**Julian Emmanuel** (0:52)
Good morning.

**Jonathan Ferro** (0:52)
We often say on this program, you can learn something about the data and you can learn something from how the market responds to the data. This morning, numbers from Samsung, fantastic, record quarterly profits, stock gets hammered. What can you learn from that this morning?

**Julian Emmanuel** (1:06)
So what you can learn is the sentiment around the AI trade, in our view, is probably as cautious as it was in the first quarter of the year, coming into the reporting season in April that actually caused the market to pivot higher.
It really is this, every one of these aspects has now become a glass half empty type of view. But at the end of the day, what we think that this earning season will show is that like this report last night, there is incredible strength. And if positioning gets to one way, it gets taken off. But the longer term trend, the fact that these stocks and this theme is driving financial markets in the global economy higher is intact.

**Jonathan Ferro** (1:57)
And Julian, the shorter medium term, it does feel like there's been a turn, though, off the back of the micron numbers, 85% margin, Samsung record quarterly profits. And yet the market is punishing some of those stories. And you start to see a rotation back to the big spenders, the hyperscalers. We've heard from multiple people in the last 24 hours. That's the trade they like now. Leading into the so-called Lag 7, not the Mag 7, part of the market that has struggled, Meta, Microsoft, and leaning away from some of the chip makers. What do you make of that, Cole?

**Julian Emmanuel** (2:23)
I'm going to have to use that one.

**Jonathan Ferro** (2:24)
It's not mine. It's not mine for what it's worth.

**Julian Emmanuel** (2:26)
I kind of like that.
If you look at the last two and a half years, particularly in the earnings season, it's much more about positioning in terms of short-term reactions. And in that respect, look, we know where all the money and all the profit has been this last two or three months. Look at some of these names, how much they've run up, 200, 300% off of the March 30th low. This kind of digestion is completely normal. And frankly, we'd argue it's healthy, as is the rotation into some of these names, which are going to report stellar earnings. And oh, by the way, because they've been punished so much, are trading at pretty reasonable valuations.

**Lisa Abramowitz** (3:11)
On top of that, you have the headwind of higher oil prices now put to the side, right? Because oil prices have made a round trip back to where they were before the start of the Iran war. How positive of a talking point is that going to be for the companies and sectors outside of tech?

**Julian Emmanuel** (3:26)
I think it's very underappreciated as a profound positive. We went back and we looked at... You know, we started the war in March by doing this analysis of when oil price went above the 24-month moving average by 30 or 40 percent, that that would be a market disruption event.
The retreat back to $70 and below is almost one of the fastest spike on wines on record, and it's absolutely unequivocally positive. The market averages 17 percent gains in the 12 months following that return to earth of the oil gusher.

**Lisa Abramowitz** (4:06)
It's a huge relief for the consumer, especially since we had seen pressure on the consumer, both high income as well as lower income. I'm curious to get your take on whether this, the change in oil makes the Fed minutes that we're gonna get next tomorrow almost obsolete because, you know, we're not gonna get a lot of information anyway from Kevin Warsh because he's not one to be totally communicative. But does it matter as much what the Fed says now that oil prices have come down so much?