Bloomberg Economics' Chief US Economist Just Turned From Bearish To Bullish | Anna Wong

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
You're about to make a trade.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:02)
Which you do you listen to? Is it get optioning those options?

**Adam Taggart** (0:07)
Or let's do a little research.

**Anna Wong** (0:11)
Learn more at finra.org/tradesmart.

**SPEAKER_5** (0:15)
Tonight on NBC, Jimmy Fallon and Bozema St. John host the incredible new competition show.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:21)
I hired 10 creatives from all walks of life. They will be battling it out to see who can impress the world's biggest brands.

**SPEAKER_6** (0:28)
This is a huge opportunity.

**SPEAKER_5** (0:30)
This is the battle for the next big idea.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:32)
This is not play play.

**Adam Taggart** (0:34)
We're spending millions of dollars.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:35)
I'm so excited to embark on this adventure with all of you.

**Anna Wong** (0:38)
May the best idea win.

**SPEAKER_5** (0:40)
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon tonight on NBC.

**Anna Wong** (0:45)
If I have to summarize why my view has become more bullish as opposed to having been bearish for, you know, most of the last couple of years, I think it's because the economy actually had been slowing and decelerating for the past two years. And finally, we are at a point where most of these policy headwinds are over. Policy uncertainty has diminished. The Fed is ready to cut. Fiscal is also turning positive next year in terms of the impulse. So all three major economic force that's shaping the economy is turning in a positive direction. So I think that that is one reason why I think that direction is an acceleration in economic growth from here on.

**Adam Taggart** (1:43)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Much concern has been raised of late about how the economy is slowing and recession risk is rising. But is that really true? Or could we already be through the worst of things with the economy strengthening from here? To find out, we've got the good fortune to talk today with Dr. Anna Wong, Chief US. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the US. Treasury. Anna, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Anna Wong** (2:19)
Always happy to be here, Adam.

**Adam Taggart** (2:21)
Thanks, Anna. I know it's been a busy week for you, so thank you for making time for this. Why don't we get to the heart of the question I just mentioned there in the intro there? There's been a lot of concern about the economy slowing down, whether recession risk was rising back up. We obviously had a lot of fears throughout the year that inflation was going to pick back up with tariffs and other things. We have been seeing the job market weaken to the point where the Fed has basically cited it as its reason for blinking and starting to cut rates again. It does not look like we're going to get the latest BLS jobs data this week because the government shut down, but we did just get the ADP report, which came in at negative job growth.
There's an understandable scope of people out there that are worried that the economy is slowing down. You may have a different opinion, so let's start there.

**SPEAKER_6** (3:21)
Do you?

**Anna Wong** (3:23)
I think, Adam, as you know me, that the way I read the data is I read it as there's a straight up read of the data. You mentioned a negative ADP this week, which everybody is really focused on because there won't be an official BLS report. And, you know, when you look at these data, it would sound like it would look like that the labor market is falling off the cliff. But there's also, that's the perception. But there's also, the piece that I put more focused on is we just accept that things are not measured always accurately in the world. You try to understand how these things are being measured, and you adjust for what you think are the measurement errors, and you get to the underlying what's really going on. And I think after I do all those adjustments, I think what it is at the end of the day is that I think the worst deceleration is over. And we are kind of in that right after the worst, kind of where the economy is trying to recover is recovering somewhat. What, but it's still a very fragile kind of recovery. And looking forward, I mean, if I have to summarize why my view has become more bullish as opposed to having been bearish for, you know, most of the last couple of years, I think it's because the economy actually had been slowing and decelerating for the past two years. And finally, we are at a point where most of these policy headwinds are over, policy uncertainty has diminished, the Fed is ready to cut, fiscal is also turning positive next year in terms of the impulse. So all three major economic force that's shaping the economy is turning in a positive direction. So I think that that is one reason why I think that direction is an acceleration in economic growth from here on.