Bitcoin's PERFECT Bottom Indicator

**DZ** (0:00)
Did you know there's a simple bitcoin indicator that is called every bear market bottom for over a decade? Not once, but every single time. It involves two lines on a chart and nothing else. No crazy math involved, this is simple. And if you're a permable, I have some bad news. It hasn't triggered yet. Now the two lines are just two simple moving averages on the bitcoin weekly chart, the 50 week moving average and the 100 week moving average. The 50 week moving average is the orange line, the 100 week moving average is this teal line. And every bear market bottom has the 50 week moving average falling below the 100 week moving average. So let's go ahead and zoom in on the data and see, why haven't we seen it this cycle? Are we gonna see it this cycle? And what are my thoughts on, are we at a bottom? Now looking at the previous cycle, the 2022 bear market bottom, you can see right here, the 50 week moving average would drop below the 100 week moving average, but it would happen before the bottom. And we can measure, we can go straight down. It would happen a little less than two months before the bottom. So we found a bottom two months later, but that's not how it happens every single time.
Here you can see the bottom happened before the indicator flash, not after the indicator flash. That was two months after. This time it was about three months before, three and a half months before. And what are we seeing at the other time? That one's very close. You can see it's two different weeks, but that bottom happened after the trigger flash, not before. So we have two times it happened after, one time it happened before, and this time was three months. So every single time, around two, three months later, we do see a bottom. But are we gonna see it this time around? What are we seeing with the charts here? Well, right now, it looks like it's actually not going to cross. Now I have a theory here. I don't think we're gonna see this bear market signal this time around, and I have some pretty compelling data suggesting that, but one of the reasons why is we're kind of knocking off the lower week averages on the 50 week. So this is 50 weeks ago. So you see, last week, we had this lower candle. Two weeks ago, we had this lower candle. Three weeks ago, we had this lower candle. Now we're only starting to have data from levels above where we're at right here with this moving average. So the orange line is about to have some pretty good moves to the upside as it gets rid of these weekly candles. And the 200 week, I mean, it's a longer moving average. So it's just a little bit slower to move to the upside. So the orange line could easily accelerate up while the blue line lags behind, doesn't quite ever cross here. So it's definitely an argument. We're not going to see the cross, but one of the main reasons why we're not seeing the cross, this bear market is a lot different. This is now the best Bitcoin bear market from a drawdown perspective. Well, what does this say in a more simple terms? If you measure from the top and you measure the amount of days it's been, when we're this amount of days from the previous cycle high, we were always a lot lower with Bitcoin's price. And we don't have to rely on speculation. We can just measure it right here. So Bitcoin all time high, right now we are 193 days past this and we have fallen roughly 38%.
So where's Bitcoin's price after 193 days? Well, if you go back to the previous cycle, after 193 days, we were down 57%. So a lot more than 38%.
If you go to the 2017 top, we were down 70% after 193 days. And then we have one that's not quite as bad as that, but still worse than where we're at today. This is going all the way back to 2013
After 193 days, Bitcoin was down 52%.
And so because we've only fallen 38% after 193 days, we're not gonna see this bear market cross in my opinion. Now of course things can change, but right now Bitcoin is in a bullish range. We're zooming in to the daily chart here. We're still in this parallel range. This parallel range continues to make higher lows and higher highs. And just today we created a very, very bullish higher high. Now the downside of this pump here is we are gonna be running into resistance. And resistance is pretty close to where we're at today. Right now Bitcoin's trading right around $78,000.