Bitcoin’s BIGGEST Test Yet? Saylor Sells $216M (Macro Monday)

**Scott Melker** (0:02)
Is this Bitcoin's biggest test yet? Michael Saylor did what he said he was going to do and sold thousands of Bitcoin to raise cash and to fund dividends on the preferred stock offerings. But that's not all that's happening in the world, and it is after all. Macro Monday, we'll dig into everything happening with Mike, Dave and Peter, cheer, let's go. Good morning, everybody, happy Monday, and welcome to the show. Going to go ahead and bring on Mike and Dave. Now, we got Peter here joining very soon. Good morning, gentlemen, how are you?

**SPEAKER_3** (0:53)
Good morning.

**Scott Melker** (0:54)
Good morning. Mike, let's start with the morning.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:57)
Yes, Andrew Sasher at Com has came on and pointed out the weekend appointments probably gonna take any type of July hike off the table. He expects the Fed to hold the rest of the year.
FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday, expects them to be hawkish, but they're three weeks stale. Next key day will be July 14th, the next couple of weeks, we'll get CPI and the first, the chairman's first Humphrey Hawkins testimony. He expects the Fed to cut next year. That's a Bloomberg economics for you. Ira Jersey came on.
CPI retail sales are big reports. He's looking forward to next year.
Auctions, the 10s, the 3s, 10s and 30s, will be the ones this week to matter. He thinks 10s are pretty good, around 450, and people keep coming in to buy the 30, around 5%.
His key quote was, it's no Fed this year, and inflation is to roll over. I owe that fit into my commodity outlook. He thinks the two-year note yields too high, and expects it to be below 4%, and the 10-year note fair value is around 442 Wendy Song, Equities, came in and just pointed out how earnings have been a blowout, 30% growth in Q1, greatest since post-COVID, consensus for 24% growth going forward. Balance sheets are supportive of the bullish trend, so not much new there. And Audrey Child Freeman, our FX strategy, pointed out how dollar longs are very stretched and short yen positions are very stretched. She's a bit concerned, but she thinks the yen can get to 165 And I'll go very terse. I point out my commodity outlook is backing up on what Ira pointed out, is we have a pumped and dumped trend. We should be rolling, continue to roll over this year in commodities. The Bloomberg one index was up 28% its peak. Now it's only up 9%. And stock market's up 10%. And we're just a whole commodity sector is a complete sock puppet. I see it to the stock market. And I expect it more likely to head lower. So I just point out Crude Oil 68 was first traded in 2005 It's a non-event. Energy should continue lower. What does Trump need? That should happen. Metals are reverting, particularly gold. Gold's below its 200-day moving average. I see that as a market that's rolled over and will be done forever. Not forever, for a long time. And I've been bullish for decades. And the only thing that's really kind of up a little bit is the grains. But again, a lot of rain. Back to you.

**Scott Melker** (3:25)
Dave, any thoughts on any of that right now? Trying to get Peter on.

**Peter Schiff** (3:29)
Yeah, I mean, look, two things.
Saying he doesn't expect to hike now, I mean, I just I have to laugh. I mean, the odds of the Federal Reserve hiking into this economy in this situation is it's been wrong. I've been saying it's wrong. I'm not going to change my mind. I think that the next direction is down.
Whether they do that via actually cutting the rates or just increasing liquidity, their goal is to fund our ridiculous deficits. And we are not going anywhere with those deficits. It's simply, it's almost unfathomable. And every time we talk about prices of assets, I just come back to the denominator point. You know, there's more dollars, there's more yen, there's more euro than ever before. And expecting that, that denominated in those things for, if you're calling for prices to stay the same, that means you think that there's deflation in the cost of producing those things.
And that doesn't exist, except in the case of things that could be produced via technology. So oil, for example, with fracking has come down, we understand that it's still trading well above the cost of production, and it's gonna trend towards some margin over the cost of production, unless that the whole piece deal falls apart and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And Peter can talk about that far more eloquently than I can. Technology is doing what technology does, which is it's deflationary. But services and everything that you can't use technology to produce, well, guess what? Prices of that continue to move up. Why? Because we're producing more dollars. It's the one thing that Peter Schiff and I agree on that we talked about last week. It's just that. So every time I hear Mike talk, say, well, gold is going to go nowhere for decades. Well, you know, the last time gold did nothing for decades, we've printed more money in the last five years than all of those decades combined. And so that's really the issue. So adjusted for for dollar growth and, you know, just currency growth or fiat currency growth, I would agree with Mike. But that you can't make that assessment because that's not what people are looking at. And so that's the fundamental part of where I disagree. Is it a slave to the stock market? I mean, yes, absolutely, in a sense. I mean, the stock market is why is there, because human beings cannot afford to save in savings accounts anymore. You know, if you want to preserve your wealth, you have to invest in something. So and we all know, you know, we make that we joke about this all the time, Scott. We say, you know, hey, they made recessions illegal. Well, no, they haven't made recessions illegal. What they've done is they realize that the economy is being propped up by the wealth effect. And so God help us if we let that reverse in a material sense for a long time. I mean, we can have volatility. We saw that with the tariff tantrums, etc., etc. over the last few years. But every time that people expect that, okay, now this is going to be the great unraveling, what's happened? Well, they've injected liquidity into the market, yada, yada, yada, and off we go again. And here we are, studying at all time highs. The Fed's not going to cut while we're at all time highs and all like that. They're just going to let things go. But if it looks to be falling, well, you'll see what happens. That's sort of my thought process.