Bitcoin’s $70K Breakout Will Be DECIDED in the Next 72 HOURS

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Bitcoin 70K breakout will be decided in the next 72 hours. Well, a lot of people predicting that Bitcoin will continue up from here, and a lot of people looking to macro markets for a reason that that might happen. Of course, headlines about Iran, but more specifically for monster earnings this week, as well as some important inflation data. We're gonna dive into all of that today. We got the three amigos, myself, Dave, and Mike McGlone back from two weeks off markets. Can't wait to hear what he has to say. Let's go.
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Macro Monday. I hope that you all had a wonderful weekend. I'm back in the studio here, as you can say, and more importantly, we've got Mike back. So let's go ahead and bring him on right now. We have Mike and Dave. Good morning, gentlemen.

**Mike McGlone** (1:04)
Morning. Morning.

**Scott Melker** (1:06)
Mike, morning meeting. Did you take off the morning meeting for two weeks too, when you separated from markets? Did you completely get out of there?

**Mike McGlone** (1:14)
I did. It was good to disengage. It's hard to stay away from markets when you're addicted, but it was nice to not log on for basically a week and a half.
But so from the update from our economist, our meeting, was this week's Purely FOMC, Stuart Paul is our economist. He pointed out the Fed's two and two camps. There's the uncertain and uncertainty, but they're all more willing to act now. They're all tipping towards uncertainty, with inflation being the key issue and AI-associated investment, the top driver for inflation. He thinks in this meeting this week that policy rates will remain unchanged.
Data, we're getting Q2 GDP expects it to be 2 percent. Household spending increased 2.4 percent, so it's still strong. And the PC deflator that dropped about 3.7, which we all know is still above the Fed's target.
But so his quote is, expect a hot GDP number supported by AI investment. Will Hoffman on rates had a few decent comments. He pointed out the oil beta to the short end has shrunk. He doesn't think the Fed's going to be all this hikings price in the market will be materialized. He thinks the Fed's going to sit on their hands for the rest of the year. Although the markets are priced for 2 percent inflation at some point next year, the price for hikes. He did point out the Tanyanose broke above 466 resistance. But here we are back below that. Auctions, foreign demands and return to normal levels.
And hawkish hold expected from the Fed. Will, we Hoffner made a few quotes on equities. Busiest weeks of earnings, last week Tesla and Alphabet were not good. But he pointed out, we have 800 billion of CAPEX spendings from the hyperscalers in 2027 He expects that to increase to 1 trillion in 2028 Earnings growth is running 26 percent. Overall pace this year expects to be 23 percent. It's quite phenomenal. And the market as a whole is good shape as long as inflation does not mess it up. Our FX strategy point out, she has some good reasons for the dollar to continue strong. We don't have to mention all those. The point is the Fed's hawkish, the data has been strong, geopolitical uncertainty, and there's pretty significant nervous about the yen, although markets still quite, you know, specs are quite short. Then I pointed out on the back of her hawkish comments about the dollar, that's bad for most commodities, most notably metals. I viewed the whole metal sector as a complete sock puppet to the stock market, including gold. Stock market goes down, correlations between most metals and the gold and the stock market about the highest ever and then the market going up. It's never had this. That's like 60 days. And I pointed out the key thing that's like happening in agriculture. It's a complete sock puppet to crude oil. Crude oil is up 50 percent. Soybean oil is up 50 percent. Crude oil goes down. The whole agriculture sector goes down.
And if you have any opinion on crude oil, just what does Mr. Trump need or want for midterms? I fully expect those prices to be lower. And 80 is probably the key inflection point in crude. Back to you.

**Scott Melker** (4:25)
Yeah, I'm just going to show really quickly. And Dave, I know you want to talk about oil. So we'll do that in a second. I just want to show the key events this week just so people have some context. Mike, you mentioned the earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon all this week.
And trailing what happened obviously with Google and Tesla last week, I think those are going to be the key events this week. But then I guess we can dive into oil and the hawkish Fed. But Dave, you and I were talking right before the show about oil and you had a giggle. So I'd love for you to follow up.