Bitcoin Won't Go Lower Than This: Ben Cowen

**Ben Cowen** (0:00)
Bitcoin has historically bottomed after it goes below the realized price and the balanced price. Every single cycle, that's where it tends to bottom out. You can see, that's where the bear market's in. Even in the pandemic, that's where the bear market ended.

**Nick Valdez** (0:12)
But where is that Bitcoin balanced price in? Why do me and Ben Cowen think this cycle is different?

**Ben Cowen** (0:17)
So, but there's actually a chance this cycle, at the risk of saying this time is different, there's a chance that we might not go below the balanced price.

**Nick Valdez** (0:25)
But we'll show you where that Bitcoin balanced price is today, why we think it's gonna be different, but before we do that, I want to show you some short-term price action. So right now we're looking at the four-hour candles on Bitcoin, and there's something that I wanted to point out to you folks here. Now there's a lot of confluence, you can see right here, we have a nice range on the bottom. Let's talk about the upside and then I'll give you a target. If Bitcoin continues to crash where I expect some support, we move this parallel range up, and we go to where we hit these candle closes and opens. These are the four-hour close, four-hour open, four-hour close, four-hour open. Also, you can see it hitting these wicks right here. If you fast forward to the present action, that is where we reject it. But if we continue to fall, I do expect a little bit of support at the bottom of this range. That's going to be right around $64,000 if it happens 24 hours from now. Let's talk about this orange line, which is the Bitcoin balance price, and why are we not going to hit it this bear market? That is the question. Well, to start that, you got to look at every time we do go below it. So the first time we fell below the balance price was all the way back in 2011, and we fell significantly lower than it. You can see Bitcoin's price was $2, and the balance price was $4.
Now, the price was so low, you actually got to throw in some change. The balance price was $2.10, Bitcoin hit $4.50.
Now, because the Bitcoin price was so cheap, you actually got to throw in the change. Bitcoin's price hit $2.10, the balance price was $4.50, Bitcoin went 55% lower. But now, let's talk about the second time we did below it. That's going to be in the 20 teens, and this is going to be January of 2015 Once again, you can see, we fell significantly below this balance price. The balance price was $2.35, Bitcoin would go to $1.76, Bitcoin went 29% lower. So at first we were 55% lower, then we were 29% lower. The next time we see this is after the run up in 2017, we hit it again in 2018
And now the bottom for Bitcoin's price is getting closer and closer to the balance price. This time in December of 2018, Bitcoin would only go 11% lower. And if you go to the most recent bear market in 2022, they basically hit the same point. So we went from 11% lower to 0% lower. So 55% lower, then 29%, then 11%, then 0%.
Now if you use log regression, this time the math is saying Bitcoin should be 5% higher, but I also gamed out what if it's 11% higher, because it was 11% lower, 0% lower, could be 11% higher. So now let's look at the recent price action. I'll tell you where that balance price is today. If we were to hit the balance price, it is at $39,000.
So what if Bitcoin is 5% higher? Well, then you're going to be looking at a $41,000 Bitcoin. But what if Bitcoin was 11% higher? Well, now you're starting to look at a $43,000 Bitcoin. So that would suggest we have a lot more downside for Bitcoin's price, but my only rebuttal would be, I don't think we're going to go to 39K. I don't even think we're going to go to 43K. I do think this cycle is different. And to me, one of the main differences, there weren't Bitcoin ETFs at that time, and MicroStrategy also didn't have nearly as much Bitcoin. So I'm predicting much less selling pressure this go round. And also Ben Cowen isn't saying it's going that low. He's just saying that is as low as it can go. Now let me know down in the comments, how low do you think Bitcoin can go? And was 59K the bottom? I'm still about 50-50. We might not see Bitcoin hit the 50s ever again. I'm DZ for Discover Crypto, and hopefully I'll see you and your Bitcoin at the top.