Bitcoin WIPES OUT $504M Of Shorts As Korea PLUNGES 9% - Macro Monday

**Scott Melker** (0:02)
Bitcoin wiped out $504 million of shorts coming out of the weekend when everybody was calling for Black Monday at the end of the week. Meanwhile, markets are exploding across the world. Korea hitting circuit breakers, Japan down almost 5%. Much of this on the tech unwind, and of course, an escalation of the war in Iran. We're going to talk about all of that and more today with Dave, Mike and Peter. Cheers, let's go.
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to yet another Macro Monday. Gonna bring everybody on now. We got Mike, Dave and Peter Chear joining today. Mike, start at the morning meeting and tell us what's going on.

**Mike** (0:58)
So, Anna Wong, expecting the CPI to be out 0.4 tenths, starting to decline.
She thinks we'll be near the peak. 4.1% is their year over year, her year over year outlook. I think the consensus is 4.2. She thinks the peak from the Iran War, gasoline wave inflation is over. More surprising is core, it's been subdued, 0.2 is what she's expecting, year over year, 2.9%. 2.2% on a monthly is basically in line with the Fed's consensus, the Fed's target. She says part of the reason it's subdued is because airfares are still likely to be hot, but AI showing up in memberships, electronics, anything. But the reason, she said, is a one-off housing net surge and rents have come back down. Second, higher prices affected consumer spending, higher gasoline prices, which causing deflation and other stuff. Club memberships is one thing that I caught, I had distracted for a little bit. Nanfar Paylo was strong, reading in May, construction leisure, and one thing she mentioned, weather is good in the World Cup. But she does expect that to diminish by the end of the year, and she's actually expecting more likely to be rate cuts later in the year, which is completely against consensus. Ira Jersey, I think Dave likes that. Ira Jersey thinks it's difficult for the 10-year-old yield to continue to decline, even if we have risk-off or lower oil.
But she sees slightly lower inflation later. Markets right now pricing for CPI to be higher than what Anna expects and she expects the uptrend in 10-year yields to continue potentially testing 4.62% in the 10-year, but not really trading much higher. I point out Japanese yields are rising. And what else did he say? It would take, so just point out that what's watching the rest of the world.
Chris Kane, our equity guy came on. He says, what you might expect from an equity person. One day blip does not make a trend, remains bullish, pointed out the mark was just overbought for two months. What he said pointed, stand it out was that we had, Friday was basically the worst day since October 9th to last year. We remember that one.

**Scott Melker** (3:22)
Mike, you're cutting in and out. I know he's going to glitch right back in. But.

**Mike** (3:26)
Well, okay. So what I do is I'm just going to cut off some of my stuff running in the back running to me.

**Scott Melker** (3:34)
I think we covered the gist of it there. I want to go right to oil. Obviously, actually, I was just comment. It seems like a lot of people in your morning meeting actually are taking contrarian views today. The fact that we'll likely get rate cuts. I think the polymarket and such are now looking at rate hikes and a lot of people think that wars is backed into a corner.
Today we have oil up, which makes sense considering we see this trade like an altcoin depending on what happens on any given day. I don't think up 4% one day means nothing in oil, but it is notable that it's rising and still, I think consensus over there is that it will fall.
Peter, what's your outlook on oil? Maybe it's always the perfect day to bring you on when something happens in Iran. So we had basically, Israel, I believe, attacked Beirut and Iran attacked Israel as a response, and that always makes us shake our heads about the potential ceasefire.

**Peter** (4:32)
Yeah. So one, I tend not to bother with front end of WTI or Brent. I've been looking really focusing on January 20, 27 Just it's steady right around 80 It seems to have trouble breaking. And I think the oil market's pricing in higher for longer. I think that's going to have repercussions for diesel and all these other things. You pull up the strategic petroleum reserve in the US. We're back almost near the Biden lows in terms of how filled we are. There are limits to how much we can drain. So I now think this is going on till at least September.