Bitcoin Will Never Have Another 80% Crash | Eric Yakes

**Eric Yakes** (0:02)
Everything's structurally changed, and now people are viewing this asset differently. The further up we saw this AI trade go, and the further down we saw Bitcoin go, it's just like, oh, what a perfect, perfect opportunity to rotate out of the gains from that. Those three new variables are kind of like setting the scene that I think change how Bitcoin gets adopted and by who. If Bitcoin is in 5 to 10 trillion market cap range, now we do start to get into that world of like, okay, from a global standpoint, this is one of the most deepest, most liquid homogenous assets that kind of exists globally.

**Danny Knowles** (0:37)
There you go. Go on. Do the gun show before we start.

**Eric Yakes** (0:39)
All right. Right here, right here. Yeah, that's not going in the show.

**Danny Knowles** (0:43)
This isn't a Breedlove podcast. That's not going in the show.

**Eric Yakes** (0:48)
I will end up in that genre at some point in my life.

**Danny Knowles** (0:52)
Well, you're going to be like a gym influencer.

**Eric Yakes** (0:55)
Yeah. I like nerdy stuff too much, but at some point in my life, I'll probably be posting pictures of myself shirtless and giving people health advice.

**Danny Knowles** (1:03)
You're going to have to get in much better shape, man.

**Eric Yakes** (1:05)
I know. I'm almost on month two of a sober streak to...
We're dropping some pounds. 2025, traveling with you that whole time, I was throwing it on.

**Danny Knowles** (1:19)
I was going to say, I've probably not seen you about two months. Is that why?

**Eric Yakes** (1:23)
Yeah, that's probably why. Yeah, it's the reason I didn't come to New York.

**Danny Knowles** (1:26)
Well, I will see you soon. We'll break that streak.
How's it going, man?

**Eric Yakes** (1:30)
Good, man. Well, it's like...
Wow.

**Danny Knowles** (1:36)
The past few weeks have been big.

**Eric Yakes** (1:38)
We are back. I didn't budget for any of this. I'm thinking anybody really did. And there's just been a lot of major events. I think it was a good bear market, but there's been some major events recently that I think...
I think it's cool. I think we'll look back on this period, and I think it's going to be pretty historic in terms of an inflection point in Bitcoin.

**Danny Knowles** (2:05)
Why? What do you think has been the key inflection point?

**Eric Yakes** (2:09)
I think it's a few things.
One, I guess the furthest back, the Tether audit announcement, it's not really necessarily the fact that they received that, that's a big moment in the industry. There's some debate around that. That's not really what I'll get into. But nonetheless, Big Four firm is verifying the reserves of the stable coin. That's like, what is it? I think they're a top 20 international owner of US treasuries. And they get this audit, that they're operating independently internationally. And they've been buying a ton of gold in Bitcoin, and they have this reserve position in gold in Bitcoin. So I think, one, them getting that audit and taking a step towards more legitimization in the eyes of the world, that's big. Obviously, the next big thing was the treasury announcement over the past week. And whether you call it yield curve control, whether you call it the treasury is doing its own QE, there's technical debates around how all these things work from a definitional standpoint. So it doesn't really matter. What matters is that the treasury is earmarking. They are trying to control what the rate of interest on the long end of the curve ultimately is. And the market knows and is responding to that in a way that this is just going to lead to more debasement.
And then Bitcoin and gold rallied immediately. So this rally and this change, there's two big things with that. I think, number one, this was something we talked about in the annual report. This was part of our predictions. One of the big things was the idea that the cycles are broken, or they never existed, or whatever you want to think about that. And this, I think you and I are on a podcast last year, we're talking, I don't think it's ever going to fall below a 50% drawdown again. And we pretty much, if this is the bottom, then we hit that. Like pretty much on the dot. I think it was slightly below 50%.

**Danny Knowles** (4:21)
But it was very close.

**Eric Yakes** (4:23)
Yeah, very close to that number. And that means that everything's structurally changed. And that is the key insight, is the market is taking a meta analysis of the price performance of Bitcoin over this period.