Bitcoin VS 200 Week Moving Average: Bottom Is Close

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**Deasy** (0:26)
Wayfair, every style, every home. Bitcoin is once again knocking on the door of the 200-week moving average. And we have seen this exact moment before. We saw it in the brutal bear market of 2018 and in 2022 after the collapse of FTX.
And we even saw it back in 2015 But what if I told you there's an even more accurate predictor for Bitcoin's floor? It worked much better in 2015 and in 2022 And as a bonus, it even called the March 2020 low. This is a metric I haven't shared in months, so we need to determine what is the new price for Bitcoin's floor. Now, if you've been watching this channel for a while, you probably remember what indicator we're talking about, and that is the Smooth Moving Average. And simply, the Smooth Moving Average is a combination of the Simple Moving Average and the Exponential Moving Average. And there's a magic number for the Smooth Moving Average that keeps calling Bitcoin's bottom bear market after bear market. Now, before we show the Smooth Moving Average, it is worth noting that, you know, now that Bitcoin has fallen to the 200-week Moving Average for the first time since 2023, it is historically a great buying opportunity. But that being said, you can see the price often goes below that Moving Average, so let me share you the one that actually calls the Bitcoin floor. Now, if you want to find this indicator yourself, go into the indicators tab on the top, type in SMMA, and then you'll find Smooth Moving Average. The number that we're paying attention to is on the weekly timeframe, 230 Now, the teal line is the 200-week Moving Average, and the purple line is the Smooth Moving Average, and we're not going to see the teal line until Bitcoin is 200 weeks old, and then we don't see the 230 until, well, you guessed it, 30 weeks later. So let's look at the 2015 bear market. You can see here that the 200-week Moving Average actually did hold a support, and it held a support again, and it held a support again. The problem was we crashed below it. Where do we crash to? Right to the 230-week Smooth Moving Average. So while this may have been a great opportunity to buy Bitcoin, if you bought here, you would actually see a 30% drawdown. So in 2015, the Smooth Moving Average, was a much better indicator for calling the Bitcoin bottom. So let's keep going through these bear markets, and we'll show you where is the price today. Now we're looking at the 2018-2019 bear market, and you can see, well, once again, the 200-week Moving Average did hold a support, held a support again, but then you can see in March of 2020, we would crash below it. Now, this one is pretty close. It's about 5% away, but it is a lot closer than the 200-week Moving Average. The 200-week Moving Average fell, you know, again, about 30%.
29% on the dot, you can see it right there. So if you listen to this metric, you're off by 30%.
You listen to this metric, you were only off by 5%.
Now, in 22, it gets even more accurate. The 200-week Moving Average did not really work in 2022 You can see it basically just immediately fell below, came back up, held as support. You know, that's one, two, three different weeks crashed through at the end of the month on the fourth week right there. Where would it find support? Well, what do you know? It would find support at the 230-week Smooth Moving Average. So as you can see, verifiable proof, this is a much better bottom indicator. Let's go ahead and fast forward to today's price action. Well, I have it hidden for now, but you can see right now, we are testing the 200-week Moving Average, and it is semi-holding as support. We're trying to hold this level, but you can see right now, the price action flirting with danger. Let's share this level. Now this level right here, the 230-week Smooth Moving Average, telling us a $46,000 Bitcoin is in the cards. Let's zoom in on the short time frame. I found something that actually is pointing to that direction. Now, going to the 4-hour chart here, you can see we are creating a bear pennant on Bitcoin's price. I'm going to draw out the pennant. So the pennant is going to go down versus up on the top side, while it starts to go up on the bottom side, making more of a flag pennant than a traditional rectangular flag. Now, the way you would measure a bear pennant is the move to the down side would come from the break to the down side. So from the bottom of the yellow line, let's move that right here. Now, let's go back to the weekly chart so we can see that 230 week. Oh my gosh, what do you know right there? These two numbers are starting to coincide, and when you get more confluence, the probability starts rising, and now we're starting to look at potential $46,000, $47,000 Bitcoin. Just wanted to put that on your radar. So many people are looking at the 200-week moving average as the bottom indicator, but to me, it's more like the start of accumulation zone. So I'm still watching this lower level at 47K. Let me know down below. Do you think 60 is the bottom? Are we going below 50? I'm Deasy, and I'll see you and your Bitcoin at the top.