Bitcoin to $40K? Analysts Split as the Market Searches for a Bottom

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Welcome back to the Daily Crypto Deep Dive. Bitcoin is back below $60,000. Fear is rising again. The crypto market feels heavy. And now the big question is getting louder. Is Bitcoin going to $40,000?
That is the debate we are diving into today.
Not in a lazy way. Not just shouting bullish or bearish, but properly looking at both sides. Because some analysts believe the bottom is already in. Others think this market has another painful leg lower to go. And if Bitcoin cannot reclaim $60,000 quickly, the panic target everyone is going to start talking about is $40,000. So today we are going to look at the bear case, the bull case, the analyst views, the key levels, and then at the end, we will give our view clearly. We are not going to sit on the fence. We will answer it straight. Yes or no? Do we think Bitcoin is going to $40,000? Before we get into it, this show is supported by Kraken. If you are trading crypto and want to support the podcast, you can do that through our Kraken link in the description. It helps keep the show going, and we are also giving away 20 XRP to listeners who sign up through that link. As always, this is not financial advice. Only invest what you can afford to lose. So let's start with where we are now. Bitcoin is trading just under $60,000. Ethereum is around $1,570.
XRP is fighting around the $1 area. Solana has been under pressure. The wider altcoin market looks tired. And Bitcoin is on track for a rare back-to-back quarterly loss.
That last part matters because this has not just been one bad day or one ugly candle. This has been a proper grind lower. Bitcoin has lost momentum. ETF flows have weakened. Retail excitement has dropped. The AI trade has stolen a lot of attention. Gold and silver have also been selling off, which matters because Bitcoin has been treated by many investors as digital gold. When the whole debasement trade starts unwinding, Bitcoin gets pulled into that pressure as well. That is the backdrop. Now, let's look at the bearish argument first. The bears would say this is simple. Bitcoin has lost $60,000, and if it cannot get back above that level quickly, the next major downside zones come into play.
First you look at $55,000.
Then $52,000.
Then $48,000.
And if the selling gets disorderly, $40,000 becomes the big fear level.
Benjamin Cowan has been one of the more cautious voices. His argument is that Bitcoin could still fall toward $40,000, with a cycle bottom potentially arriving later in 2026 The reasoning is not just the chart looks bad. It is based on weak altcoins, low retail interest, Bitcoin dominance, a strong dollar, and the idea that the market has not fully completed its reset yet. That is a proper bear case. Whether you agree or not, it is not stupid. If the dollar keeps strengthening, if the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, if ETF outflows continue, and if investors keep rotating money into AI stocks instead of crypto, Bitcoin can absolutely go lower. Crypto needs liquidity. When liquidity is leaving the market, the price gets punished. Then you have the ETF issue. Bitcoin ETFs were meant to be one of the biggest supports in this cycle. They gave institutions an easy way into Bitcoin. They helped build the argument that this cycle was different. But when ETF flows weaken or turn negative, the story changes. Suddenly, the thing that helped push Bitcoin higher becomes a source of pressure. That is why the $40,000 question exists. If institutions are not buying, if retail is scared, if miners are under pressure, if corporate treasury confidence gets questioned, and if macro conditions stay difficult, then Bitcoin does not need much more bad news to drop again. The bear case also points to Strategy and Michael Saylor. Strategy became the symbol of corporate Bitcoin buying. But when Bitcoin falls below the company's average purchase price, and when Strategy's own valuation comes under pressure, traders start asking whether the Bitcoin treasury model still works in a falling market. Even if Strategy is not forced to sell, the market starts pricing in fear around the entire model. And fear is powerful. Bitcoin does not need facts alone to fall. It can fall on positioning, leverage and panic. If traders believe other traders are about to sell, they sell first. That is how levels break. That is how liquidation cascades happen. That is how a move from $60,000 to the low $50,000 can happen faster than people expect. So the bearish side is this.
$60,000 has failed. Momentum is weak. ETF support has faded. AI is taking capital. The dollar is strong. And Bitcoin could still need one final capitulation flush. In that scenario, $40,000 is not impossible. Now, let's switch to the bullish argument. The bulls say the $40,000 call is too pessimistic. They argue that by the time everyone starts shouting about a crash target, a huge amount of damage has already happened.