Bitcoin To $10K Or $20K? Schiff + McGlone Live (Macro Monday)

**Scott Melker** (0:03)
Is Bitcoin headed to $10,000, as Mike McGlone says, or to $20,000, as Peter Schiff says, or is it potentially bottoming now, as I say, and I assume Dave Weisberger believes, is likely possible. We're going to all unpack our predictions and everything happening in the macro and with Bitcoin. Now, I've got Mike and Dave and joining us shortly. Peter Schiff, let's go.
Good morning, everybody. Happy Macro Monday to those who celebrate, like and subscribe, do the thing. We've got Peter Schiff joining today. He'll be here hopefully momentarily. We have Mike and Dave here already. Dave on about two hours of sleep from winning a satellite tournament in Vegas, the World Series of Poker. Congratulations, and thank you for still showing up.

**Dave Weisberger** (1:04)
It's a bit rough this morning. I'm not gonna lie.

**Scott Melker** (1:06)
You had to show up. You had to show up. All right, Mike, let's start with the morning meeting, and Peter will join when he joins.

**Mike McGlone** (1:12)
Good morning. Anna Wong pointed out her outlook for the payrolls. Non-farm payrolls coming out Thursday because of how they is for 200,000, so she's got a very strong number. Consensus is about 130 She thinks the main driver will be leisure and hospitality due to the World Cup. One thing that's notable, state and local governments have been a drag for months, but looks like last month might see pretty significant contributions. It expects about 80,000 contributions from state and local governments.
The point she points out is that this leisure and hospitality is usually transitory. It usually goes away by summer.
State jobs are one in the watch. One thing she's worried about is the property market is not doing well, which is typically a big part of state and local governments. One thing she did point out is we still have a bit of a hangover from the Biden administration, fiscal stimulus that's kicking in with construction workers and things there. She also pointed out Warsh's speech will be, I think, Wednesday, but this week, and probably focus on price stability. She does think, counter consensus, the Fed will be cutting rates by 2Q27 next year. Jenny Lee came on, her equity strategist said the market is about AI and US dollar. In AI, she thinks there's definitely markets becoming much more valuation sensitive. But dollar strength is a bit of a head one, didn't really add too much more, that was profound. Ira Jersey thinks the market might be incorrectly pricing for two hikes this coming year and then a cut next year. He says, it's not similar to 1990s. He says, it's strange to do that.
Data from non-power farm payoffs is going to be most important, but it's also on a long holiday weekend, so expect maybe more volatility than normal. He still expects that to yield an inch higher, but he thinks the best risk reward is at some point when they start cutting rates and it will be in the shorter end. The auctions last year were not a big deal. Davidson Santana spoke about FX, didn't really reveal too much except you still bullish dollar. Then I dug into commodities. We can talk about that later. I'll just give you the basics I'm looking at. The key things are elasticity and dependency. You're seeing that the bull force and elasticity mean it's the most powerful force in commodities. Why is crude oil $69 the same price as 2007? Because it can't stay up for any reason because there's a major paradigm shift. I fully expect that cycle to get toward crude oil making the call. It's going to head towards 40 in the second half of this year. Maybe you could get above 80 and something silly, but head towards 40 and one key theme and just a little backup in US stock market, a little pickup in volatility, which we'll way overdo for. I also pointed out another fact is 60-day volatility between gold and the S&P 500 at 0.72 is the highest ever. If you can make a statement like that, that's what matters. Anytime we've had spikes in that volatility in the past, it's usually when everything goes down together, which is strange. 2008, 2011, 2022 That's a bit of a sign they should expect some pickup.
I also pointed out the bottom line for commodities is what does Mr. Trump want or need? He needs lower energy prices, so he'll probably pressure commodities in the second half of the year. Mr. Warsh is focused on higher rates, with the account probably keep gold and metals, most notably gold and silver under pressure, and I expect those markets to remain under pressure. Back to you.