Bitcoin Surges Toward $74K! Is A Capital Rotation Underway?

**Scott Melker** (0:02)
Bitcoin is back at a key resistance level, arguably the most important level on the chart, $74,000, and it has been absolutely raging since the beginning of the war in Iran. Meanwhile, silver and gold down, and stocks are wavering. Are we finally seeing the capital rotation into Bitcoin and even crypto as a flight to safety? We're going to discuss all of that and more here on Macro Monday. Let's go. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. As you can see, I am not in my studio because this is a real background for once, and I would be much better lit if I was using the fake background that we usually use. But we are going to dig in here to everything happening, and man, there is a lot. We're waiting for James to show up, but we got Dave and Mike for now. Mike, let's start at the morning meeting where I'm assuming oil, oil, oil, oil, oil.

**Mike** (1:05)
Yeah, well, we'll just start out with Anna Wong. She said, pointed out, fourth quarter consumer spending was weak. It's not a surprise. They got a shutdown. FEB CPI like to expect it to jump a little bit, so that will keep the hawks, dominate for the hawks, and the dominates means the hawks should dominate in the FOMC. And she pointed out the policy statement expects some mention of war, of the war and the upside inflation risk. So basically, FOMC stuck here. Ira Jersey reiterated that. He said Fed priced out cuts, fears of inflation, holding back the Fed. Tips are priced for CPI around 2.25 percent. Those are five-year tips. See, that's about okay. Fed's happy with that. Ten years closer to 2.4 percent. There's been the break evens for a while. The market's happy with that. Market doesn't think there'll be a durable inflation shock. He tilted over to crude oil and pointed out the forward curve. I reiterated that. That's not showing up. He said if anything might be a wider spread between Brent and WTI, so definitely a lot of oil there. He pointed out the auctions for 30-year. Last week was very strong and everything else was weak. The shorter stuff, the easing come out of the back of the market. His quote was 30 years. He thinks it's unlikely to break above 5 percent. That would likely need another Fed hiking cycle. And 10 years still stuck in a range. He thinks it's unlikely for the two-year note to get above 3.75 percent. Chris Kane came on and pointed out the 14-day RSI on the SMB 533 was a bit oversold. Oil, the key level that matters is staying above 100 He says it's not always a relative change that matters in their analysis. It's staying above 100 has typically has a– and it's WTI is a problem for crude. And this key thing for the future is high levels of oil, a key factor for stocks going forward. Audrey Chilfremont, FX, didn't say too much, but pointed out the ECB is going to– the euro is going to continue to be a problem unless there's some kind of resolution in Iran. Dollar wins. And then I pointed out, said, this has been the year for commodities of 20% on the year, most notably because of energy. How endurable is that? And I suspect it's not. I'm looking at this year for crude oils, the year similar to 2008 The peak was 145 in July, and by January, and by December, it was down at 32 And I think the market seems to be seeing that. And I pointed out, just like at the forward curve, that's a very long, like just a one year out, and Brent is running 76 Right now, the front is 100 That's a mountain to climb, to climb up that curve to go to higher prices. And obviously, it's all about the straight. And I just pointed out, well, right now, this is Trump's problem. It's Trump's, should be fixing it. He closed the straight, and it should be him to fix it. Now, I'm sensing desperation by asking others to help. Back to you.

**Scott Melker** (4:00)
Yeah, I was gonna say, he's got the coalition now, and Ron's the coalition of the willing, you know. But Trump's new coalition plan sends Bitcoin surging. We can discuss the Bitcoin side, I guess, later. But one catalyst away from a breakout, that this is more crypto-specific. But yeah, I mean, it seems like he's grasping at straws right now, and maybe didn't expect them to close the straights. And I saw it today as well. I think it was India, Pakistan, China, and Turkey are allowed to use the straights, and nobody else right now. Iran had created this list. But I mean, is oil the only thing worth discussing at this point?