Bitcoin Smashes $78K As Investors Go Risk On! Real Breakout Or Bull Trap?

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Bitcoin is back above $78,000, as investors go risk on across the board, leading many to wonder if this is yet another bull trap, or if we're actually going to see a major breakout and a move into the 80s. But there's so much in the news today that it's hard to really care about price. So I'm lucky that I have Noelle here to discuss all of it with me and more. We're gonna get into it right now, let's go.
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. It is hump day, happy Wednesday to all of you who celebrate. We have been given quite a few massive stories to discuss today. Noelle, I was lamenting yesterday that there was no news. You know, it was like, what are we gonna do a show on? What are we gonna talk about? And then I flew to the moon, apparently, and the crypto gods gave us a lot. So, with you, I just wanna...

**Noelle** (1:08)
I can't even imagine what no news looks like these days. There was a time, I don't know if you remember, Scott, it really wasn't that long ago when there was really nothing going on and the prices were bumping along and the organization was simmering, not exactly boiling. And we were only searching with... This was what, two years ago? It feels like a lifetime ago.

**Scott Melker** (1:27)
Yeah, I mean, now the news cycle is insane, but we were given some major crypto-specific stories today, which are blowing my mind. Justin Sun's suing World Liberty Financial, New York Attorney General suing Coinbase and Gemini, Calchia and Polymarket launching perpetual futures.
It's out of control. But I want to start with where we are with price and obviously how we're being impacted by macro, because I know that's sort of where you focus. Bitcoin jumps over $78,000, hits 11-week high amid Trump's Seek Fire extension. So, I mean, I don't even know how to talk about the war anymore, to be honest, because I get accused of having TDS and I feel like I'm losing my mind. So now we have an indefinite ceasefire.
Not really sure what that means. And markets love it. But last I checked, there's no negotiation going on publicly. I have no idea what's happening behind and we still have a blockade, right?

**Noelle** (2:22)
And the oil price is climbing. Brent is up at 101 now. And the stock market, as you pointed out, is behaving as if this doesn't matter.

**Scott Melker** (2:32)
I mean, all markets seem to be behaving as if this doesn't matter. I mean, ironically, it was kind of gold, which is the hedge you're supposed to go to when a war starts, that's performed the worst probably of every major asset class since the war started. I mean, Bitcoin is up 12%-ish. Actually, probably now 15 or 16%.
That was yesterday that I looked at a chart. It was up about 12% since the beginning of the war. Stocks were up 4 or 5%. They're probably 6 or 7 now. And gold was down 8 It's probably down 6 I don't know, but we live in the upside down.
None of it makes sense.

**Noelle** (3:02)
Yeah, the bond market has generally been labeled the intelligent market because it just trades on macro data and big fiscal data. It doesn't get involved in AI narratives and things like that. And so generally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%.
That's high when you consider that the Fed actually started the cutting cycle quite a while ago now. And it's also high considering yesterday we had the hearings on Capitol Hill of the Fed chair nominee who is known to be a dove and has the explicit task of bringing down interest rates. And yet yields are not coming down. So the bond market is sending a very different signal than the equity market. Gold is marching to its own drummer as it tends to do. The Bitcoin move is curious and does have many of us, myself included, scratching our heads with a little bit of tentative optimism.

**Scott Melker** (4:00)
Well, I pulled up a chart yesterday on the Yahoo show, but Bitcoin is actually outperformed in every single crisis since 2020, certainly.
When you look at all markets, it's been in the green 60 days later after all seven major crisis events that we can look at and some of those are very notable. Remember the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, obviously Bitcoin was up like 30 percent or something when that happened. And I know that that was very specific because USDC had questions. A lot of people rushed out of USDC and into Bitcoin. But as much as it gets a bad rap, in these moments of those two months after an event starts, Bitcoin actually historically has performed exceptionally well. So we shouldn't be surprised. I just don't understand why people don't see that.