Bitcoin RIPS Past $66K On Trump's Iran Deal – Macro Monday

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Bitcoin's ripped past $66,000 on Trump's Iran peace deal. I did the air quotes because it sounds more like an extended ceasefire than a peace deal to me. But I'm sure we will discuss that today with Dave Mike and very special guest, Gary Cardone. It's going to be a good day to talk about oil, boys. Let's go.
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Macro Monday. I'm gonna bring everybody on right now, right after you like and subscribe. We've got Dave, Mike and Gary. Dave, I mean, congratulations. I said it to you before, I'll say it again. I know you've waited 55 years for anything good to happen in your sporting life, 53 years.

**Dave** (0:57)
Not quite technically, but the next one. The next for sure.

**Scott Melker** (1:02)
And the next one this weekend. I was in New York, it was a lot of fun. Not the rioting that I saw on TV personally, but hey, I guess that's what the media does. Mike, let's start with the morning meeting, which I'm sure is all about the Knicks.

**Mike** (1:14)
Yeah.
Andrew Sacher, an economist came in and he's pointed out, it's going to be what worse says some other people had comments about that and retail sales this week. In the Iran war, it looks like it's pretty much cleaned up. Chris Kane, our equity strategist, pointed out that it will probably reach all times highs. Today, there's been decent divergent strength in the overall Equal Weight SP500 index, and advanced decline lines have been pretty positive, healthy market rotation. His scorecard says momentum is still the primary factor driving things, values number two. Low vol and profitability remain bottom.
Ira Jersey, our senior interest rate strategist, pointed out, expects the front end to move lower in yield. Two-year likely drop towards $3.90 for fair value. Long end, supply driven, he thinks that 30 years is going to stay below 5% now. Range bound environment in long end. His quote on Warsch is, he thinks, unlikely that Warsch is going to be able to convince the FOMC to cut rates. Hawks are likely to continue to be vocal and strong and hard.
Financial conditions are a bit easy, so it's not really a story for lower rates, particularly with higher inflation. Audrey Chilled Freeman, our ex-FX strategist, pointed out the yen is getting sticky at 160 It's getting bearish on the yen despite the fact that BOJ is going to be hiking again.
Fed's the one who's going to be dictating, she's really watching what wars is going to stay on June 17th. The US data continues to outperform, which is a bit of a dour factor.
But she expects a hawkish meeting from the BOJ to continue. They actually, typically I go last in meeting, they asked me to go second today, so I just point out the key facts that commodities probably peaked. Pre-show, Dave was giggling a little bit with that cool game, Dave giggled about all the longs and MWTI crude oil, and they're getting stopped out. The thing I want to point out is I'll stick with my bias in crude oil, is that December contract, that's where the puck's going. It's $74 a barrel. I think it's going to be low by $55 or lower by midterms. That's what Mr. Trump needs. That's also effectively the breakeven cost of production, the world's largest producer net exporter, the US. But it's not just crude oil, it's corn, soybeans and wheat. They all got really pumped out. There's a sector that get way long, hedge funds get way long. Sometimes you just love writing about stuff when you know it's probably going to go the right way. They're all getting stopped out, they've dropped a lot. Corn was at five, now it's near four, soybeans are at 12, now they're near 11 They're probably going to go to their cost of productions are much lower. I pointed out natural gas is leading the way. Then I just mentioned in metals, the metals are completely dependent on the stock market going up, mostly only copper and gold, and that's why I have to half off Canada TV once we talk about gold. They should like when I'm embarrassed, but I've been bullish for decades and I just stopped being bullish this year. So back to you.

**Scott Melker** (4:11)
Yeah, I want to go, Gary. So obviously on this oil point, we got a tentative deal on ending the Iran war, we can discuss that. But sending stock storing, oil prices to lowest level in months. You've obviously participated in the oil market for most of your career in the energy market. So I mean, we agree with Mike, I guess, first, that this is what Trump needs and they're going way down for midterms. What do you think is going to happen there?