Bitcoin Is Setting Up For A BREAKOUT - $853m Just Flooded Into ETFs

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Is Bitcoin finally setting up for a breakout? ETFs just had their largest inflow since April, $853 million flooding in last week. Also, Sailor sold some more Bitcoin, and the market, once again, does not seem to care. Are we absorbing bad news before heading up? We're going to talk about that today, of course, with Dave and Mike, and then we've got David Young joining in about 10 minutes. Let's go.

**Dave** (0:29)
Let's go.

**Scott Melker** (0:45)
Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to all of you and to all of me. I have been gone for about 11 or 12 days, pretending that European beaches are actually beaches and they are in fact just rock faces that meet the ocean. They don't have sand.
Nobody knows that except for me. The European mind cannot comprehend sandy beaches. We're going to go ahead and bring on Dave and Mike right now. Good morning, gentlemen. How are you? Dave's at a real beach.

**Dave** (1:14)
Well, I actually am, although this is a background. I mean, there is a beach here about a few hundred yards from me, but so be it.

**Scott Melker** (1:22)
I noticed you're wearing the McLaren shirt. Is that in celebration of Lando's finally getting a victory there a week ago?

**Dave** (1:28)
That plus it's Bitcoin orange. So I figured both of them. Bitcoin had around between 64 and 65,000 after Sailor has been selling Bitcoin for three weeks, I think is pretty important. But we are going to get to that later. But yes, I do look at the F1 results and every once in a while, I wear based on what would I see.

**Scott Melker** (1:49)
All right, Mike, morning meeting, where are we at? You got to catch me up because I haven't been paying attention for about 12 days.

**Mike** (1:55)
That's perfect. You got to get away at a great place to get away. I was a student in another life in Europe and it made me really appreciate American beaches.
And by the way, the Bitcoin shirt should be red. Just where we should be.

**Scott Melker** (2:09)
Your Ferrari jersey out, Dave.

**Dave** (2:12)
I have one of those. When LeClerc won, if we had had a show, I would have worn it.

**Mike** (2:17)
So what I appreciate about Anna Wong, she's just straightforward. She said, yeah, August is a funny payroll number. There are 50,000 job losses from local governments. It should be notable that's an economic effect. It's typically not seasonal. She specs some of the data in Ford to be weaker. Long rates above 5 percent, she said, is part of it. Housing, industrial production, things like that. Local government budgets are shrinking, except the next payroll number to be weak. Unemployment rate is falling for the wrong reason, shrinking labor force. Expect that to rise. Sharepoint was 47 percent for rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, 917, she thinks is way too high. CPI expects another soft number, core year-over-year to drop to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent. The clear point is the lowest. We could have the lowest core rate since 2021 And she thinks FOMC hawks who have been pointing this will get crushed. Not, I use that word. She didn't. I should have. And his war, she says, is making his case for using broader measures and PC is becoming decent, legitimate, clear evidence that the tariffs path-throughs are peaking. One example is the auto equipment is declining year-over-year. And she doesn't think the Fed is going to hike in SEP if they're data-dependent. Ira Jersey came out and same thing. He said the next key move he thinks going to Fed is probably going to be a cut. But he did say the point that it's going to be difficult for the 30-year to rally into year-end part because there's less foreign demand.
Japanese bonds, do you have a price and decent alternative now? Certainly when they're not hedged or when they're hedged with USD.
He does think the two-year note at 4.2 percent is stubbornly high.
If we get the weak CPI, the ANA expects treasuries to be taken to a bull steeple in this week. Jackson Hole is obviously quite important, thinks that worse is going to focus on his task forces, and thinks like I said, next Fed move is going to be easy. Chris Kane, our equity strategist, pointed out, yeah, we're at all-time highs.
Our sayings are not so high, but one thing he did point out is we went back and checked all-time highs in the past. One thing that's really significant happens after that, did you get lower volatility? By the way, I should have mentioned that this is the time you're about to use your bottoms. Earnings are incredible, 82 percent reported, 32 percent earnings per share is growth. Last quarter was 29 percent, so highest growth in about 13 years. Earnings fantastic and tech is leading the way, so not much there. From a dollar currency, FX, Audrey Chill Freeman, she points, she thinks we're going to see further dollar weakness.