"Bitcoin Is Following A Pattern Nobody Wants To Admit" | Anthony Scaramucci

**Scott Melker** (0:00)
Everybody wants Bitcoin to go up right now. But the legend Anthony Scaramucci says that's not how this cycle works. In this conversation, Mooch explains why the current Bitcoin pullback is actually a garden variety cycle.

**Anthony Scaramucci** (0:14)
A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin, it sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market.

**Scott Melker** (0:22)
Why OG whales may have intentionally triggered the sell-off above 100K?

**Anthony Scaramucci** (0:25)
There were some traditional whales, some OGs, that believe in the four-year cycle. When you believe in something, you create a self-fulfilling prophecy. So these guys looked around and said, okay, we're over 100, sort of a magic dot number for me. I held Bitcoin for 15 years. God bless the person that was able to do that. And they started selling into the $100,000 number.

**Scott Melker** (0:47)
And why institutional buyers like BlackRock may have actually softened what could have been a much deeper crash. We also get into why the fear and greed index hitting all-time lows could actually signal the bottom. Why Mooch believes Bitcoin could reach $2-3 million per coin within the next decade.

**Anthony Scaramucci** (1:04)
You know, $20-32 million price target. We think it gets there by the end of that. That's six years from today. So if you get the opportunity to buy it here, buy it.

**Scott Melker** (1:14)
And why almost every crypto project will eventually go to zero. Plus, we dive into the real battle over the Clarity Act. Why banks secretly need crypto regulation more than the crypto companies do, and what finally brings retail investors back into this market. This conversation is packed with insights on Bitcoin cycles, institutional adoption, tokenization, stable coins, and the shakeout coming to the crypto industry. Let's go.
Sue and I were just talking before, and you think we might be following the four-year cycle more than some of us might want to admit.

**Anthony Scaramucci** (2:05)
By the way, I love denial. I've lived most of my life in denial. I think I'm six foot four, in my own mind, at least, definitely not on my driver's license, but I think you have to be realistic about Bitcoin. I think you have to be realistic about where we are. And a couple of things have happened under the surface. So another big crackdown in China, as you know, I'm just back from Hong Kong. The Chinese went around surfacing VPNs, etc., closed down a lot of Bitcoin mining that was happening in China. It was probably 10, 12 percent of the mining going on in China. You saw the hash rate come down in Bitcoin. Some of that was related to them pulling people out of the mining capacity in China. And then you had the cascade of selling in October. And the thing about that is nobody, Scott. You can talk to five experts, ten experts. You can't get a cong rule.

**Scott Melker** (3:01)
You can't get an answer.

**Anthony Scaramucci** (3:02)
You can't get an answer, right? So to me, then, I'm saying, and this is just my supposition, my surmise, that we're in a four-year cycle and that there were some traditional whales, some OGs that believe in the four-year cycle. And guess what happens in life? When you believe in something, you create a self-fulfilling prophecy. So these guys looked around and said, okay, we're over 100 That's sort of a magic dot number for me. I've held Bitcoin for 15 years. God bless the person that was able to do that through all the different moves in Bitcoin. And they started selling into the $100,000 number. I actually think the cycle has been more muted by the institutional buying. And by institutions, I mean BlackRock or Fidelity or the 11 or 12 ETFs that are out there that people have stepped into and started buying. Bitcoin could have gone down more if you just look at traditional cycles. So I'm in the camp that we're in a four year cycle. We're going to chop for a while. But by the fourth quarter of this year, you'll start to see the traditional move that you get.
And I think if you look at the whales, they're buying down here again at these lower numbers. I've been buying and I don't know if you've been buying.

**Scott Melker** (4:20)
I'm buying like crazy.

**Anthony Scaramucci** (4:21)
So my attitude is, you know, Sailor's the most aggressive. He's got a $13 million price target. I think SkyBridge, we have a $20, $32 million price target. We think it gets there by the end of that. That's six years from today. It's another halving into that cycle. And so if you get the opportunity to buy it here, buy it. But I think what happens in our industry, we want everything yesterday. So Trump comes in, whatever you and I both think of him, he's perceived as pro crypto. We get a big run. There's positive crypto regulation coming. Atkins is pro crypto. All of that is good news. And so people were expecting in 25, myself included, and I got it wrong, 150 crypto. It didn't happen, and now people are in the doldrums. And so you can't be in the markets like me for 38 years and see a greed fear index, which is zero to 100 at five. So you have the fear indexes at five and be overly bearish. You can't as a person of sensory, because I can tell you, that's when you're making your money, okay?