Bitcoin Holds STRONG as Peace Talks Collapse - What Happens Next?

**Scott Melker** (0:00)
Bitcoin is holding strong at $75,000, even as peace talks are seemingly falling apart in Iran. Every day, we have a new headline that conflicts with the headline we saw yesterday. Hell, every hour, we seem to have a headline that conflicts with the headlines we saw just an hour ago. But with all of that happening, as I said, Bitcoin is still strong and markets still relatively resilient. Will that remain? I don't know, but it's a conversation worth having today with Mike McGlone, James Lavish and Dave Weisberger on vacation. We've got Peter Chears standing in. Let's go.
Good morning, everybody, happy Monday, and welcome to the show. Macro Monday, as you know, is the best hour of the week. That's not my opinion, that's actually a fact. I saw it on Wikipedia. I think we got Mike, we got James, and we got Peter here. Peter, I was gonna say, you know, when you popped on, you looked different today, Dave.
But Dave is trouncing around Italy with his wife on vacation, so we're gonna let him be and not get his blood pressure up on a Monday. We know that this sets the tone for his entire week. I don't even know where to start, gentlemen, so we're just gonna start at the morning meeting and take it from there, Mike.

**Mike McGlone** (1:25)
Yes, we'll start with Ana. She came out, pointed out retail sales is probably the significant data this week, expecting to be up 1.2%. That's actually below consensus. Its consensus is 1.4%, all by gasoline. And she said auto sales is part of it, which she finds surprising, typically for this kind of environment, but didn't really put in a good reason why. The control group, which was really lagging before the oil shock, is expected to be 2.0%, which is basically X oil and a lot of stuff like that. She said consumers were actually getting squeezed and falling behind on payments and things before the issue with spiking energy prices. The risks of the Iran oil shock on consumption is really the key theme for her, which is about the top 20% of households. But if you look at the stock market, it's not a problem so far.
And her key theme was, as long as the stock market mechanism is not adjusting, inflation and consumption will stay higher. As you know, that's been my theme for a while. She talked a little bit about Warsh today, but Ira Jersey had some more significant comments about Warsh's testimony. Tamar expects it to be somewhat delvish.
He thinks the 10-year note is not going to really break out of a range for quite a while.
Real even still means somewhat high despite the breakdown in crude oil. Chris Kane, our equity strategist, came and pointed out things that I think we've seen a lot before. It's this 10- to 12-day return we have had in the stock market. It's the most in about 100 years. And it rarely happens outside of bear markets. We know sharpest rallies usually happen in bear markets.
And typically from deep below 200-day moving average, this was just kind of a normal one. So he's a bit... And he didn't point out, typically when these things happen, the next period afterwards, usually market continues to trade well. And then he pointed out the halo, the trend, the heavy asset, low obsolescence trend you expect that's going to continue beating capital light kind of stocks.
And that was really it. And then I jumped on and point out how the number one bull market I see in commodities is elasticity. And that is what you saw in natural gas here, it's down 20% on a year over basis, because it was up 100% in the beginning of the year. I fully expect that to happen to crude oil, so I reiterated my call that WTI crude oil might get to $40 a barrel in 4Q. Just find what natural gas did, because it went up too much. And the key theme for that is what does Mr. Trump want. It's a normal cycle. And the key prerequisite for that is the stock market going down, which it's not doing right now. So maybe that'll cover my CYME. I'm not trying to do that. I'm just pointing out this is what typically happens in markets. And then I roped in all the other ones I've been looking at. We had good resistance in Bitcoin around 75 I think that's still significant here. Good resistance in copper around 6 Still significant there. Now those are, and then you look at silver and gold and even pretty good pumps we've had in soybeans and corn. They've all had these cycles that I think are still heading lower and are incomplete. So that's probably good enough for me. Back to you.