Bitcoin Enters A Critical Phase (Watch These Levels)

**Ran** (0:02)
So there's good news and there's bad news. The good news we're going to get to at the end of the show. I want to start off with the bad news, and I think we all know what the bad news is. The bad news is that we broke through this level on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now below 69,000. So we broke below the bear flag. We broke below 70,000. At the same time, you got ETH, which also broke levels. We broke $2,000, and you got SOL, which broke the $80 level. So all the levels have been broken. But the chart levels or these levels in the charts aren't the only levels that have actually been broken. We've broken up, we've broken some other key levels. One of the other key levels that we've actually broken is the RSI levels. The RSI's are now below 45 Now, what that means is that we are in bear market RSI. So if you look at this chart over here, what this chart over here shows you is that every time we break below 45 on the RSI's, that actually means more of a downtrend. And you can actually see it when you look at this chart over here. The more concerning thing for me is that now, this looks very much like the traditional four-year cycle. And not only does it look very much like the traditional four-year cycle, but it actually looks like the traditional four-year midterm cycle. Now, what happens in the traditional four-year midterm cycle, which we've just broken back into that channel, means that we usually bleed out here, and we go into lows, which actually comes sometime around October. So I want to talk about all of that. I want to talk about all the levels that have been broken. I also want to talk about what the next levels are for Bitcoin, because I think that the next levels for Bitcoin actually become a little bit scary. I think we need to see them, so that when we get to them, we know exactly where we're getting to. And then after all of that, I actually want to give you the good news. And there is good news on the horizon, believe it or not. Maybe it's not as good as Bitcoin, or as good as the bad news of Bitcoin breaking down, but there actually is some really good news on the horizon, and I actually want to show that to you. So the bad news, the good news, we'll discuss everything today.
Anything else you want to discuss hardest today, while we're here?
Let's get the show on the road in, sir.
As I said, I promised that there is actually good news at the end of this, but let's start off with the bad news for the day. The bad news for the day, as I said, we've broken down below the bear flag. I don't like the fact that we've broken down below the bear flag. The main reason why I don't like the fact that we've broken down below the bear flag is because now this market is very much starting to resemble 2022 And if I look at the 2022 market, what I warned you guys about every other time that I've spoken about this is I said, look, the problem with these collapses is that you break down and then you get into these bear flags, and then when the bear flags break, it becomes quite aggressive. The biggest and most aggressive move after a bear flag is when we tag the 200-day moving average. So you can see over here, we tag the 200-day moving average, we hit the top of the bear flag, and then we actually add the big move. So the first move down in the 2022 bear market was this move over here, which went down top to bottom 50%.
The second move down, top to bottom, was actually the more violent move over here. So that's the more violent move, which was about 65% down. And the problem is that right now, as it stands, we are doing exactly what we did in 2022 So if you want to believe the four-year cycle, you don't want to believe the four-year cycle, that's up to you, but right now, the part that's worrying me the most is that we are resembling 2022 If we break down the same way that we broke down in 2022, and this bear market exactly resembles the bear market of 2022, I want to show you what it looked like top to bottom. So that's the top over there, that's 69,000. And the bottom was over here when FTX collapsed, and that took us down 77%. So that bear market actually went down 77%. I don't want to talk about 77% on this bear market, because I don't think it can happen. The reason why I don't think it can happen is because we never got a very big bull market. But under the assumption that we actually did go down 77%, we would get to 27,000 or 30,000 on the markets. As I said, I don't think we're going to get there, but worth talking about it, and also worth talking about the other levels where we can realistically get to, because now that this bear flag has broken down, there are levels that we can realistically get to. One of those levels is this level over here, which is the bottom of the last channel, which was $60,000. And actually, if history were to repeat itself, then we would go down a bit lower than that. So I want to talk about that as well today. Before we do though, I do see that there are 400 of you here and only 50 likes. Do me a favor, let me, help me get some distribution here. It really, really helps. We had a very big show yesterday, thanks to you guys. Much bigger than our normal shows. Thanks to you guys. So do it again. Smash the like button, help me get the distribution. I'm going to carry on bringing you the fastest alpha on the internet. I promise you, at the end of the show, I'm going to bring you the good news. There's a lot of good news that's actually coming out here. So that is my big fear. My big fear is that we have now hit that, we're now resembling the 2022 bear market. You can see the 2022 bear market, when we hit the 21-week SMA, that's when the big move came down. We just hit the 21-week SMA again, which is a big problem. The other thing that's broken, so we broke through all those levels, we broke the RSI, the other thing that's broken is, remember we were, at some stage, we were correlated with the IGV, which was this ETF for software stocks. Now, what you'll remember, if you were paying attention, is that the IGV took a big hit. Why? Because the software stocks took a big hit when AI came out. When AI came out, everybody kind of said, oh, AI is gonna kill software stocks. And that IGV index went down 35%. The thing with the IGV index is that now the IGV index is starting to recover, right? So if you take the IGV index off its low here, it's up 45%.