Bitcoin Could Make Its Biggest Move in Months!

**Ran** (0:01)
The good news is that the data shows that Bitcoin is about to have a really big move. That's the good news. But the bad news is that I'm not sure that the move is going to be an up move. It could be an up move. I'm going to show you the data for an up move. But in all probability, if you look at the balance of probabilities and you look at the data, the move should be a down move. And it should be a big move as well. I'm going to show you all the data in the show today. I'm going to show you exactly why the move is about to happen. And I'll show you what the balance of probability says about which way the move is going to go. As I said, there is a chance that the move goes up, but the probabilities favor a down move. And I'm going to show you exactly to what levels that down move may be.
I think in the interim, we should probably look at what happened on the market. So if you look at what happened on the markets, the NASDAQ is now basically flat after a very bad day yesterday. So if you look at what happened to NASDAQ yesterday, we were down around 3%. Today, it looks like the NASDAQ is going to open basically flat. South Korea actually slightly recovered. The Crosby has been doing that a lot. Goes down 10%, up 3%, goes down 10%, up 3%. At the same time, Bitcoin isn't recovering. And as you can see, Bitcoin is now going back towards the lows, almost back to sweeping those lows. Now, it's 61,705. And as Ben Cowen here says, he says, Bitcoin is in a very tricky situation. And the reason why it's a very tricky situation is if you look at the charts that you see in front of you on the screen, you can see the white line. That's the 200-week moving average. And that's a key level when it comes to bear markets. And the reason why it's a key level when it comes to bear markets is if you look at this chart over here, and you look at the white line, you can say that in this bear market, we rebounded, we just went below the white line, and we went below it, and we carried on going back up. In this bear market, it was basically the end. This was COVID, so it was a little bit of an anomaly. In the last bear market, in 2021-2022, in that bear market, we went slightly under it, and we stayed under it for quite a while. Actually, I'll show that to you on a better chart over here. So if you look here at this chart over here, we went under it here.
When we broke the 200-week moving average, we still went down about 30 percent, and we stayed under it until eventually we finally broke above it only 504 days later, or about a year, a year and a half later. So that white line, the 200-week moving average, is quite a key line. Now, right now, if you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin is between the 200-week moving average and the bull and bear market support bands. Now, why that is such a key level is because if we go below the 200-week moving average, we get a repeat of 2021, and that means that Bitcoin goes down about 30 percent. I just want to show you what that means when you actually look at the chart. So that's the chart, and you say Bitcoin down about 30 percent from here.
Let's go down all the way 30 percent from here. So that's there. That takes us to about 45,000. I want you to keep that number in your head, that 45,000 number in your head. That's what happens if we repeat the 2021 scenario.
On the other hand, and that would be the good news, is if we break above the bull and bear market support band, so this is the bull market support band, below it, you're in a bear market, above it, you're in a bull market. If we break above that, we could actually invalidate the four-year cycle, and we could actually be out of the bear market. It's not impossible. I mean, if you look at, as I said before, if you look at history, you can see that history says that in two of the previous bear markets, what happened was we gotcha. This would be the 2019 bull market and the 2019 bear market, and this one would be the one that we'd been most similar to, and we only spiked below it because of, actually because of COVID. But, so right now, we are looking for a move, and the question is whether we're going to go above the bull market support band, or we're going to go below the 200-week moving average. And then it comes down to probabilities, and that's what I want to talk about today. I want to talk about the actual probabilities. A lot of people are saying, a lot of people are basically fed up with this industry. And to be honest, it has been a very, very, very tough market in being in this industry.