Bitcoin Breaks $64K Around Fed Decision as XRP Goes Live in Hong Kong | Daily Crypto Roundup

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Welcome back to the Daily Crypto Roundup. Bitcoin had climbed above $64,000 ahead of today's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. But uncertainty is rising across global markets. The chances of the Clarity Act passing this year have fallen to a record low. XRP Retail Trading has launched on a regulated Hong Kong platform. And Morgan Stanley believes blockchain technology is bringing the traditional nine to five banking day to an end. At the time of recording, the Federal Reserve has not yet announced its decision. We will explain what the market expects and what each possible outcome could mean for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. There is plenty to get through today, including why a surprise interest rate hike can no longer be completely dismissed, how tokenization is apparently bringing an end to traditional banking hours, and why the United States could risk losing more crypto business to Asia if lawmakers continue delaying market structure legislation.
At the time this episode is being prepared, the Federal Reserve has not yet announced its decision. The announcement is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern Time, which is 7 p.m. in the United Kingdom, followed by Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's press conference 30 minutes later. We will explain exactly what the market is expecting, and what each possible outcome could mean for crypto. Before we get into it, follow Crypto News Today wherever you are listening, and leave the show a 5-star rating. It takes only a few seconds, but it makes an enormous difference in helping the podcast reach more people. The biggest story today is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin had risen above $64,000 during Asian trading as investors positioned themselves ahead of the announcement. However, the atmosphere became increasingly nervous as the American trading session progressed. The base case remains that the Federal Reserve keeps its benchmark interest rate range unchanged at between 3.5% and 3.75%.
That would represent another meeting on pause and, under normal circumstances, would have been considered almost certain. This is not a normal Federal Reserve meeting. Market pricing shortly before the decision suggested approximately a 64% to 70% probability that rates would remain unchanged, but around a 30% to 36% probability of a surprise 25 basis point increase. That is an unusually large degree of uncertainty immediately before a central bank announcement. Citadel Securities has reportedly backed the possibility of an increase, while UBS has said a hike would not necessarily surprise it. Concern is inflation. Oil prices surged during Wednesday's session following renewed tensions involving the United States and Iran. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed by approximately 7% at one stage, moving beyond $84 per barrel. Higher energy prices can quickly feed into transportation, manufacturing and consumer costs, potentially making the Federal Reserve's inflation battle more difficult. The bond market was already responding. The two-year United States Treasury Yield climbed approximately five basis points to 4.33%, while the 10-year Yield rose to around 4.65%.
Both were sitting close to their cycle highs. Equity markets were also under pressure. The NASDAQ was down approximately 1.5%, while the S&P 500 had fallen around 1.2%.
Bitcoin remained relatively resilient, trading close to $63,900 despite the sell-off across traditional risk assets. The immediate reaction will depend on more than the headline decision.
A surprise rate increase would probably strengthen the dollar, push bond yields higher, and place pressure on speculative assets. Under that scenario, Bitcoin could quickly lose the $63,000 area as leverage traders react to tighter financial conditions. However, a decision to keep rates unchanged does not automatically guarantee that Bitcoin moves higher. Markets will immediately analyze the wording of the Federal Reserve's statement, and Kevin Warsh's comments during the press conference. A hold accompanied by warnings about oil prices, inflation, and the possibility of a future increase could still be interpreted as hawkish. A hold combined with language suggesting the Federal Reserve is becoming more confident about inflation would be significantly more supportive for crypto.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's options market was not showing the level of fear that might normally be expected before such an uncertain announcement.
Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index remained below 40%, substantially beneath the levels seen during the major sell-offs earlier this year.
That suggests traders were not heavily purchasing downside protection. Whether that represents genuine confidence or complacency will become much clearer once the decision has been released. Moving to United States regulation, the prospects of the Clarity Act becoming law during 2026 have fallen to their lowest level yet. Polymarket traders now give the legislation only a 27% probability of passing this year. That number is not an official forecast, but it illustrates how dramatically sentiment has deteriorated following another Senate delay. The Clarity Act is intended to establish a clearer division of responsibility between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The legislation could finally determine when a digital asset should be treated as a security, when it should be treated as a commodity, and which regulators should supervise the companies involved. However, Senate leaders have prioritized other matters, including Russia sanctions and Federal nominations, before the Senate's scheduled August 8th recess.