Bitcoin Bear Market Is OVER!? (I'M SHOCKED)

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**Nick Valdez** (0:59)
avocadogreenmatress.com Bitcoin bear markets have the same signal flashing each time we're at the absolute bottom. What if I told you I'm seeing that same signal playing out right now? And when I back tested several bear markets, I was shocked at the results. And then at the end of the video, I'm going to talk about this bear flag playing out for Bitcoin that I do not think is going to play out completely and I have the receipts.
But before we talk about the bear flag and its bearish bearish target, I want to talk about the secret signal that I found nobody else is talking about this. But I saw this and like I said, I was shocked by the results and we're just talking about a death cross. Now death cross is a technical chart pattern and it signals when a short-term moving average, typically the 50-day, crosses below a long-term moving average, typically the 200-day. And in this death cross, we're using the 50 and the 200, but we're not plotting it on the daily charts, we're plotting it on the three-day chart. So let's talk about this three-day death cross. Now we're going all the way back in 2015 Like I said, I back-tested this. And one thing I noticed, the death cross happens within about 9 to 12 days within the bear market bottom. Let me show you what I mean. Now, we're not going to count this wick as the absolute bottom, we're going to count the bottom of the candle bodies right here. So this is going to be the true bear market bottom. And when we go to the cross right here, you can see, let me get it exactly, four candles later, aka 12 days later, Bitcoin found a bottom. So we had a death cross in 2015, Bitcoin bottom 12 days later. Now let's go into the next bear market period, and we're now talking about 2018 So let's again look at the three-day death cross, and let's just go straight down, and you can see already on the bottom, this one's actually even closer, one, two, three, nine days later, Bitcoin found a bottom. So in 2015, we found a bottom 12 days later, in 2018, we found a bottom nine days later. So we're looking at three or four different candle periods. Now let's fast forward to 2022 So what do we see with the death cross right here? So death cross happens 2022 You might be saying, well, wait a minute, we didn't find a bottom within nine days, 12 days, but we kind of did. Now let me talk to you about my logic here. So once again, we see the death cross, and then you see Bitcoin capitulate into a wick low right here. This was a bottom, and this was the bottom until something happened. That something that happened was the FTX collapse. So if you take out FTX collapse, you can make a very, very strong argument. We would not go below this level right here. But if we go ahead and measure from the cross, we do see the same theme playing out. Nine days, 12 days later, we found a bottom. So let's cut into the present. So what are we seeing in the present price action? Are we seeing a death cross? Yes, we did have a death cross. You can see the 53-day moving average crossed below the 200 three-day moving average. But this one's a little bit backward. So this to me, I think it already happened. And so this one's a little bit further. This one's 18 days. You could make an argument, this was also within two, three weeks, but it happened prior, didn't happen after the fact. So let me move the charts a little bit. So that's making a strong suggestion that 60K is the bottom. What is so different about this time? Why do we fall below earlier rather than after? Well, I have a very simple explanation. We fell below the large moving averages a lot more quickly than average. So we're just going to use the same metrics. This is the 200 three-day moving average. This cycle, we fell below it in 45 days. When you look at previous cycles, it took us a lot longer. Here we're looking at the 2021 bull market. Even if you make an argument right there, really we didn't fall below it for 170 days. They're not quite twice as long, but it took significantly longer. If you look right here, this one was even longer than that. This time it would take us 350 days to fall below. So 300 and change, 200 and change, 100 and change days later. Since we fell below the moving average more quickly, it would also stand to reason that we would find the capitulation bottom also more quickly. We would see it before the death cross, not after the death cross. Now we are going to talk about the bear flag in a second, but let me remove these moving averages. I do have one word of caution. If we do end up falling below after the fact, it might be because we reject off this range. We haven't hit it yet, we are going to zoom in to the daily. It's a pretty strong resistance. This is catching the October high. This is the all time high. And then you see the pivot high in January, and we are getting pretty close to this level as we speak. But I brought up bear flags and we are going to quote Ted Pillows right here. Bitcoin has formed another bear flag. And the moon boys are getting excited again. Hit the like button if you are a moon boy. I know there is some of you in there. Nothing wrong with being bullish. I am bullish myself. But he says we know how this usually ends, meaning another leg down. So the moon boys are getting too excited. The bears are going to take control. Well, this is the Bitcoin bear flag. So how does this play out? So you can see, we are just measuring it right here. And we had a bear flag right here as well. You know, very, very similar structure there. And these play out. They play out, you know, similarly, you know, you'll see the pole be the length of the drawdown. See right there, you can see it right here. And so if we were to do it one more time, we're looking at a $43,000 Bitcoin. But let me tell you why I disagree. Let me tell you why I think TED pillows, you need to take another nap on that pillow because I don't know what you're smoking. Every bear market bottom is marked by a failed bear flag. So in 22, you can see bear flag right here did not play out. Bear flag here, played out, bear flag there, played out. It ends with a failed bear flag break out. And then we go to 2018 This one didn't have so many bear flags. You just see it fell off a cliff right there. This bear flag did not play out. And then we go to 2015 You zoom in a little bit. Clearly, we got a bear flag right there.