Bipolar Investor Confidence Makes This Stock Rally Vulnerable | Peter Atwater

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**Peter Atwater** (0:56)
So, I was chuckling to myself when you talked about this as a roller coaster. The analogy I would use is a bungee jump. Yeah. Because it has that vertical drop and that intense reversal, the cord caught and then pulled, it feels like it's almost pulled the market back up. And that to me is important.
It says to me that behind the scenes of a market that is at or near all-time highs, there's a level of anxiety that shows up in incredibly impulsive and emotional behavior. This is a crowd that doesn't stick around. It moves and asks questions later.

**Adam Taggart** (1:52)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Today's expert, behavioral economist, Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, has long affirmed that changes in confidence consistently and predictably impact investor preferences, decisions and actions. Well, there's certainly been a lot happening so far this year to both spike and crash investor confidence. It's been one heck of a sentiment roller coaster so far, with little signs that things will calm down anytime soon. So, what are likely to be the biggest drivers of confidence from here, and what are his key indicators telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2025? Well, we'll ask the man himself. Peter, thank you so much for joining us today.

**Peter Atwater** (2:38)
Great to be here, Adam. Thank you.

**Adam Taggart** (2:39)
Thank you. Well, Peter, I should start with an apology that it has been far too long since your last appearance on this channel, so I'm glad we're rectifying that now. I'd also like just to acknowledge, I think, a really nice bit of praise that you got recently. I was interviewing Jesse Felder, who is a friend of both of ours, but also just one of the more thoughtful, smarter people I have the pleasure of interviewing. And he really took his time to pause and call out your work as one of the top influences on him. And I thought that was, you know, I think a well-deserved, well-earned honor, but a good honor as well.

**Peter Atwater** (3:22)
Yeah, I was very humbling. I'm a huge fan of Jesse and his work, and to hear him talk about the confidence map and how that's been helpful to him. Yeah, that's tremendous praise.

**Adam Taggart** (3:36)
And just to be clear too, I hear praise from you, not just from Jesse, but from other folks I interview as well. In fact, I just got finished interviewing Stephanie Pomboy a few hours ago and mentioned to her that I was going to be talking with you, and she said, please give Peter my best. And again, reiterated what a big influence you've been on her.

**Peter Atwater** (3:52)
And a huge fan of Steph's as well. Very, very fun.

**Adam Taggart** (3:57)
It's a mutual appreciation society here at Thoughtful Money. All right. Well, look, let's dive right in. And let me, I guess, let's just start from a high level. On a score of 1 to 10 for volatility, how does 2025 score so far, confidence wise?

**Peter Atwater** (4:15)
So I was chuckling to myself when you talked about this as a roller coaster. The analogy I would use is a bungee jump. Yeah. Because it has that vertical drop and that intense reversal. The cord caught and then pulled. It feels like it's almost pulled the market back up. And that to me is important. It says to me that behind the scenes of a market that is at or near all-time highs, there's a level of anxiety that shows up in incredibly impulsive and emotional behavior. This is a crowd that doesn't stick around.
It moves and asks questions later.

**Adam Taggart** (5:05)