Amos Hochstein on the Strait of Hormuz Opening and Where the War is Headed

**Amos Hochstein** (0:04)
So he came out a few hours ago at 9.3 this morning as the markets opened and said, Israel is prohibited in capital letters from firing at Lebanon by order of the United States. Enough is enough.
In response, the foreign minister of Iran announced that the Straits of Hormuz are open to all traffic, and the markets went crazy.

**Jason Bordoff** (0:24)
It has been a head spinning day in the Iran War. Earlier today, following a temporary truce between Lebanon and Israel, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be quote, completely open to commercial shipping during the ceasefire. Initial reactions from President Donald Trump were optimistic, but that gave way to some confusion about what open actually means in practice. The president later clarified that the existing blockade on Iranian vessels would remain in place. Despite the confusion, markets responded quickly. Brent Crew dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time in weeks, although prices are still meaningfully elevated relative to their pre-war levels. Even with the reprieve, much uncertainty looms as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline approaches next Tuesday. So what does this moment tell us about the future of energy security? How durable is the current ceasefire? And what energy system will this crisis leave behind?
This is Columbia Energy Exchange, and this is a special extra episode of the podcast from the Center on Global Energy Policy here at Columbia University. I'm Jason Bordoff.
Today on the show, Amos Hochstein. Amos served as Deputy Assistant and Senior Advisor for Energy and Investment to President Biden and as Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security. He is a Managing Partner at TWG Global and a Distinguished Fellow at our own Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Amos joined me to talk about these recent developments in the Middle East. We talked about the long-term implications of Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, the war's geopolitical and energy market impacts, and where Amos thinks this conflict is headed in the near and longer term. I hope you enjoy our conversation.
Amos Hochstein, welcome back to Columbia Energy Exchange. Great to see you.

**Amos Hochstein** (2:23)
It's great to be with you, Jason.

**Jason Bordoff** (2:25)
I'm going to tell you something I don't think you know. This podcast has been going on for more than a decade. Sort of started with, I would run into interesting people like you and want to ask them to explain the world to me, and then we decided to record it and share that with others.
First, we started with a couple of scholars at the center like Richard Nephew, and then we said we need outside leaders and the top energy experts to come make us smarter, and you were the first one in 2015 No way.

**Amos Hochstein** (2:52)
I did not know that.

**Jason Bordoff** (2:53)
You didn't know that.

**Amos Hochstein** (2:53)
I did not. I'm proud to be back.

**Jason Bordoff** (2:55)
So it's been more than a decade.

**Amos Hochstein** (2:57)
I'm very also glad that you're not saying, and now you're the last. But I'm very happy to be here.

**Jason Bordoff** (3:03)
The last time you're on. Yes. No, we're not the last guest.
But it couldn't be more timely. We are talking at just about 1 PM on Friday, April 17th. People will be hopefully listening to this a few hours from now. And it seems like everything could be different in a few hours. But I asked you to come on and talk to us about the negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait, get us out of this energy crisis, see if a ceasefire might hold or be extended. And then it seems as of this morning, there is news that maybe there is some sort of agreement to reopen the Strait. But tell us your understanding of where things stand at this moment.

**Amos Hochstein** (3:46)
So we're in an extraordinary time because, one, we get news that agreements are reached, and then within hours we get news that, well, maybe they weren't reached and maybe they were reached in slightly different ways. And today is no exception.
The last, I would say, 48 hours have been extraordinary. So two days ago, the president, maybe even take it back a day, since the initial ceasefire between the United States and Iran was reached, which was 10 days ago, the two-week ceasefire Tuesday of last week, there was immediately a dispute as to what was the ceasefire about. The president said it was a three-legged stool, Israel and the United States stopped firing, Iran stops firing around the region, and the Strait of Hormuz opens. And then the Iranian said, well, two out of the three.