AGI Timelines Shift Forward

**Nathaniel Whittemore** (0:00)
Today on the AI Daily Brief, AGI timelines are moving forward with implications for global AI policy. Before that in the headlines, Google's AI lead says that there are no plans for ads in Gemini. The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.
Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief Headlines Edition, all the daily AI news you need in around five minutes. Today's main episode is all about comments from Davos, and actually that's where our headlines begin as well. One of the big conversations for the past week or so has been OpenAI's plans to introduce ads into ChatGPT. Now, I did an extensive show about this earlier in the week, but one of the major points of conversation, especially on places like Twitter slash X, was how ads impacted the competitive dynamics, and specifically, would it be an advantage for Google either A, in that perhaps because of their deep capitalization and balance sheet, they wouldn't have to do ads in Gemini, or B, because they have more experience with ads? Well, speaking with Alex Heath of Sources, DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis says at the moment, Google doesn't have any plans to bring advertising to Gemini. Commenting on ChatGPT ads, he said, It's interesting they've gone for that so early. Maybe they feel they need to make more revenue. Now, the comments do buck a string of recent reporting around Google's plans. In December, for example, Adweek reported that Google had told advertising clients that ad placements in Gemini were targeted for a 2026 rollout. That reporting was sourced from at least two advertising clients who requested anonymity to discuss the meetings. They said that Google had not shared prototypes or specifications for how ads would appear in Gemini, suggesting the discussions were still in a very early stage. And yet, the reporting was clear that this was about ads directly in the chatbot, rather than appearing through the use of AI mode in search. Speaking with Business Insider last week, Dan Taylor, who is Google's VP of Global Ads, said there were no plans for ads in the Gemini app and elaborated on the distinction between Google's businesses. Search and Gemini, he said, are complementary tools with different roles. While they both use AI, Search is where you go for information on the web, and Gemini is your AI assistant. Search is helping you discover new information, which can include commercial interests, like new products or services. We see Gemini is helping you create, analyze, and complete that. However, he did note that AI mode in search and Gemini are slowly converging with the introduction of AI shopping features. Google is already offering ads in AI Search, including a new feature called Direct Offers that presents a personalized discount in AI mode. I think it's an interesting choice to fully deny that they've got these plans. While on the one hand, I do believe that Google may see an opportunity to win some margin off of ChatGPT by holding out longer on ads, I don't think there's any chance in the world that Gemini's free version stays forever ad free either. But who knows, just holding out for a year, depending on consumer response to these ads, could be enough to make a difference. Next up, Meta is rumored to be scaling back their in-house chip program. Last we heard about the program in August, design had been completed in collaboration with Broadcom and Meta was ramping up orders. In November, the information reported that Meta was in talks with Google to order billions of dollars worth of their TPUs. That potentially signaled a pivot away from their custom silicon, but the reports were very thin. Now, analyst Jeff Pu of Hightong Securities reports in a research note that Meta is deprioritizing their deployment of custom silicon. Pu notes that this lines up with a broader shift where the hyperscalers are more focused on immediate compute needs than self-sufficiency. Still, Meta is reportedly looking for ways to avoid paying the Nvidia tax. The latest report suggests that instead of looking to become one of Google's first large TPU customers, they are instead placing large orders from AMD's latest chips. Pu claimed that this isn't a full replacement of Meta's fleet, but rather a strategic purchase to meet short-term requirements more efficiently. He reported that Meta could still deploy their custom silicon at a later date, with a focus on specialized workloads. I think that the more interesting conversation is what this implies around a shift overall. Alongside Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic launched custom silicon programs last year with an aim to reduce reliance on NVIDIA and AMD, but it seems increasingly unlikely that these custom silicon initiatives will make sense in the context of rapidly accelerating compute needs. Some are even questioning whether there's any financial benefit to developing an in-house chip. With investor Nicolae Sgoninous posting, AMD's total cost of ownership and performance per watt in their latest chips beats out anything Meta can do internally and TPUs apparently too. Last year was all about how NVIDIA and AMD could see erosion of market share. Now it seems the hyperscalers won't have the luxury of seeking alternatives, and could fall back on established players to keep up with demand. In partnership news, OpenAI has signed a three-year deal to integrate their AI models into ServiceNow's platform. The Wall Street Journal reported that ServiceNow users would be able to choose OpenAI's models within the platform and the deal would involve a revenue commitment from ServiceNow. OpenAI CEO Brad Lightcap told the Journal, Enterprises want OpenAI intelligence applied directly into ServiceNow workflows. Looking ahead, customers are especially interested in agentic and multimodal experiences, so they can work with AI like a true teammate inside ServiceNow. ServiceNow president Amit Zaveri said the integration will go way beyond backend optimizations. He said that OpenAI's computer use agents will be granted access to IT tasks like restarting a computer remotely, essentially allowing them to function as automated IT support. Zaveri said the agents could also help companies access data stuck in legacy systems like mainframe computers. The computer use models are basically now doing this through learning and feeding it back into the ServiceNow workflow platform. I think we're going to learn a lot this year about exactly how the agentic business model is going to shake out. It is a very different approach to try to integrate your technology inside other delivery platforms like ServiceNow versus just trying to be the ServiceNow. I don't think it's clear exactly how that plays out, but I think there's going to be a lot of experiments this year. It also, however, continues to be a land grab for enterprise business, and I expect that to just do nothing but ramp up throughout the year. Lastly today, one more OpenAI report. We have, of course, been tracking closely when OpenAI's first hardware will come out, and apparently it's set to be unveiled later this year. In an on-stage interview with Axios at Davos, OpenAI Chief Global Affairs Officer Chris Lehane flagged that devices was a big theme for the company moving forward. He said that OpenAI was, in his words, on track to unveil their device in the latter part of 2026 Now he was careful to caveat almost everything about the device rollout. He refused to discuss form factor, and he wouldn't commit to this being a product release timeline rather than just an unveiling. He added that this year was, quote, most likely, but we'll see how things advance. When the interviewer tried to present this as breaking news that we'd get the device this year, Lehane tried to correct him, adding, I didn't say it's coming this year, I said we're on track. Now it's unclear if Lehane's comments referred to the original puck design, the recently rumored behind the ear capsule shaped device, or a third different thing. In the reporting of the news, Gizmodo said, No, there have not been any updates about what the hell it is. However, that was far from the only thing that we got at the World Economic Forum. And so with that, we'll close the headlines and move on to the main episode.