A Numbers Game | August 3, 2026 | Hour 2

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
This is VSiN, the SportsBetting Network.

**Dustin Swedelson** (0:09)
The numbers told the story, they always do.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:11)
Swando's idiots who believe in analytics.

**Wes Reynolds** (0:13)
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.

**Dustin Swedelson** (0:21)
Welcome to Monday, August the 3rd. Be with you, I'm Dustin Swedelson, he's Kelley Bydlon. Thanks for hanging out with us as we broadcast as always on the Circus Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas.
It's going to be a crazy day here on the network. You want to make sure you're tuned in all day long. We've got live coverage of the baseball trade deadline, the ramifications in the betting market once the moves are made, seeing how these numbers are moving. Stay with VSiN all day long as we got you covered in that regard today on the network.
But we're getting ready for football season as well. Our College Football Betting Guide, it dropped earlier today up at vsin.com. Couple of teases for you in case you were wondering. Paul Stone, professional better with his top 15 quarterbacks in the country. Zachary Cohen, looking at the Heisman market. Zach also talking about a few teams he likes for win totals in the playoff. One in BYU to make the playoff. Wisconsin over six and a half, seven and a half wins. And the last one for Zach, LSU over eight and a half wins. And to make the college football playoff, which is something I think our next guest could get behind. And I am so pumped to finally talk to this guy on the air, not just because I love him and he's super sharp, but because I get to say the word booby prize.

**Kelley Bydlon** (1:32)
That's right.

**Dustin Swedelson** (1:33)
On the air as winner and Bill AD can't yell at me.
So 2020 Circa booby prize winner, handicapper extraordinaire. He's Michael Montesano. Check him out on X at Bets and reps. And he joins us now on the progressive guest line. Mike, what's up, buddy? How we feeling today? Ready for football?

**Michael Montesano** (1:52)
Yeah, man, we're ready. Enough of this baseball stuff.

**Dustin Swedelson** (1:58)
Well, are you like me where baseball was going pretty, I wouldn't say I was having a monster, but it was going pretty well for three, four months where I was like, all right, every day I'm doing pretty good.
And then the last three weeks, it's I'm on a dog. They don't have a chance. I'm on a favorite. They don't have a chance. I'm on the overcoat. I could not pick it right.
If I had the playbook ahead of time, is that how your baseball season's gone too?

**Michael Montesano** (2:23)
Yeah, I don't bet that much baseball. Yesterday I just had one bet and it was confirmed by a pretty good baseball handicapper, Sean Higgs. And I had the Red Sox. But other than that, you know, I don't, I usually do first fives or, you know, some, you know, first five totals. It's just, I think Gil said this, what got him out of betting baseball every single day was one year after the All-Star break, he just like hit the tank and it was just hit the skids. And it was like, yeah, that's it for me or something.

**Dustin Swedelson** (2:56)
Yeah, it is quite an endeavor.

**Michael Montesano** (2:58)
The All-Star break is real quirky. You got, you don't know where guys are going to go and you know, where their heads are at. You got the All-Star break and you know, who knows? And they got, you know, teams are completely out of it and they're calling up guys from the minors. It's tough. Yeah.

**Dustin Swedelson** (3:13)
And you assume teams are like not going to win anymore because they trade away pieces, but the reality is they're humans who are still trying to win.
Speaking of humans, Lane Kiffin, a borderline human, I think by some people's accounts, he takes over at LSU and I'm hearing a lot of people make the anti LSU case and I get it. Like the way he handled Ole Miss, you don't like him, but from a pure talent perspective, from a coaching standard that's being set there in Baton Rouge, I'm with you. I think the LSU Tigers are a team I'm looking to buy on this year. How do you want to attack them in the futures market?

**Michael Montesano** (3:48)
So what I did is I took, you know, again, I have a projection system and it spits out regular season win totals. It also spit out conference win totals. What I did was instead of taking them over eight and a half, I took them in their conference over five and a half wins because I got a plus price at that at plus 115