A Market "Retrenchment" Ahead Looks Likely | Jonathan Wellum

**Jonathan Wellum** (0:00)
Obviously, we're watching the market give away each day, and we're looking at the bigger factors out there. And it does appear to us, yeah, that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the markets just based upon fundamentals. I mean, you've got increasing energy costs, that's gonna cause increasing inflation. You've got, you know, further decoupling going on in the global economy as a result of the war in Iran. I've got interest rates actually going up quite a bit, and that's gonna have to filter through the economy, and that's gonna have a very strong negative effect on the overall economy, given the indebtedness of the economy.

**Adam Taggart** (0:41)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Today, we have the good fortune of being joined by Jonathan Wellum, who is the founder and CEO of Rocklinc Investment Partners, which happens to be Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisory firm up in Canada. Jonathan, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Jonathan Wellum** (1:00)
Great to be with you, Adam. You've picked a great time for me to talk with you, given what's going on in the markets here.

**Adam Taggart** (1:05)
Yeah, it's not like there's a shortage of things to talk about. I also want to thank you.
We're recording it the day before Thoughtful Money's spring online conference, but it's going to run the day after, and you're going to be an important part of that conference. So I'm thanking you in advance while we're recording, but retroactively after this launches for your involvement there. I know at this point in time, I'll feel comfortable saying it was a phenomenal event. Just want to remind folks, if you didn't watch it, but you wish you had, don't worry, you can still purchase a replay of the conference, folks. Just go to thoughtfullmoney.com/conference, and you can purchase the replays there. All right, Jonathan, like you said, a lot going on in the world. I want to make that part of the thread we talk about here, which is, I think about that Rudyard Kipling poem, If, I should have pulled it up here. I don't have it in front of me, but it's like, if you can keep your head while all those around you are losing yours. I think this is one of those times in the market or feels like it's about to be one of those times where there's so much concern swirling around here for very understandable reasons, whether it's what's going on in Iraq, whether it's what's going on in private credit, whether it's people just watching their portfolios start to shrink here. If they've been natural resource holders, especially in the precious metals, they're watching those get clobbered right now. I think the only people who are doing well are those who own oil and gas stocks at the moment. But how do you help people just keep perspective and keep from being their own worst enemies at this time? Because we know that most investment decisions that are made out of emotion tend to be the wrong decision at the wrong time.

**Jonathan Wellum** (2:51)
Yeah, great question.
As advisors, that's how we really earn our keep. I'm talking to our guys in the office today and I said, this is when we actually really have to work hard and to keep the long-term focus. So we go back to why we are invested in the various areas that were invested, why we own some of the businesses that we own, why, for example, are we in precious metals? And has the really as a thesis changed at all just because there's some circumstances that are causing a disruption in the markets right now. And so we always go back to looking again, now two, three, four years where we want to be and look at the underlying reasons for investing in these sectors and in the particular businesses in the first place. We have to stay focused. I've been doing this for 36 years, almost 37 now, believe it or not. And I've seen tremendous volatility back in 2008 I remember, I should say, well, 2008 was a financial crisis, but even to go back to 1998, long-term capital management, we had a lot of financials. And they, you know, Merrill Lynch, I think, went from like 80 bucks to 25 And you got to look through the long-term, of course, the NASDAQ peaking out in 2000 and so forth. So the issue is, when you're investing, why are you investing? What's the thesis? Is it still intact? Can I take advantage of the volatility to dollar cost average and actually increase my positions? And for goodness sakes, don't be buying high and selling low. That's what, you know, that's what really condemns a lot of retail investors who aren't focused. So that's what we do. We just go back to our basic thesis, look at the valuations and just stay focused.