"99% Will Lose Money!" Brandon Turner’s Shocking Prediction for the 2025 Housing Market

**Brandon Turner** (0:00)
I've been buying real estate now for 20 years, right? 13,000 units of billion dollars of real estate, everything has changed.

**Graham Stephan** (0:05)
The entire market is flipped.

**Jack Selby** (0:07)
The supply of homes for sale is low, and prices are 53% higher than they were five years ago.

**Brandon Turner** (0:12)
Just hang on, it is incredibly hard to lose.

**Jack Selby** (0:15)
Then there are mortgage rates, which have more than doubled.

**Graham Stephan** (0:18)
Where do you go to find good deals?

**Brandon Turner** (0:19)
There's a hundred strategies we could talk about, I'll tell you if you're my favorite.

**Jack Selby** (0:22)
There's a bidding war for literally every home on the market.

**Brandon Turner** (0:25)
This is gonna sound really silly. It's not that hard to make a billion dollars when you're investing in real estate, because... In last year, we saw the lowest level of transactions in 29 years.

**Jack Selby** (0:35)
So starting from zero, with no connections whatsoever, how confident are you that you can make a million dollars in a year?

**Brandon Turner** (0:41)
Given what I know right now, I'm 100% confident I can make a million dollars from nothing my first year.

**Jack Selby** (0:46)
Things have to bottom out, and they haven't bottomed out yet.

**Brandon Turner** (0:49)
People think if they just do the right thing, they probably won't get rich anyway, but I'm here to tell you, if you do these steps, you will get rich.

**Graham Stephan** (1:02)
Brandon Turner, thank you so much for coming on The Iced Coffee Hour. We really appreciate it. Thank you so much for letting us stay here in Maui. Really excited to talk to you on this one because you are the real estate guy.

**Brandon Turner** (1:13)
Thanks, man. No, thanks for coming out. It's always a pleasure. I mean, the last time we were in your neck of the woods in Vegas, now we get to hang out in Maui and we had to play with some whales yesterday.

**Graham Stephan** (1:22)
That was a good time. I'm curious, I'm sure everyone is wondering, is now a good time to buy a house?

**Brandon Turner** (1:27)
Now is always a good time to buy a house when you have a long enough perspective. It's always a good time to buy a house when you have a perspective that says, hey, 10 years from now, I mean, in American history, there's never been a period of time where real estate has been lower, 10 years in the future than it is today. Does that make sense? It's always in every 10 year period of America, you can look back and say real estate is better than it was 10 years ago. I don't see that changing. In fact, I see that getting even more pronounced over the next few years.

**Graham Stephan** (1:53)
How has it changed since 2020 though? The entire market is flipped. Everything is different today.

**Brandon Turner** (1:59)
Everything is different today. So interest rates are double what they used to be. And so for those who are unaware what that means, it basically means your payment is like double of what it used to be. So if you had a house that was, you're buying a $250,000 house and maybe your payment was, I don't know, let's call it $1,700 a month before, now you might be paying $3,000 a month, give or take. And that's a big chunk. But worse than that or equally bad to compound the effect is prices are sometimes double what they were four years ago. So not only are, yeah, interest rates higher, which makes the payment higher, so is the property value, which makes the actual payment out of your pocket way higher. So the answer, the question, should you buy a house if you can afford it would be my, if you can afford it reasonably, yeah, house would be a great investment long-term.

**Graham Stephan** (2:42)
Now, if I push back on that, I'm looking around and I would love to buy a house, but it seems like renting is so much cheaper.

**Brandon Turner** (2:49)
Yeah.

**Graham Stephan** (2:50)
That why would I spend, let's just call it just for even numbers, $10,000 a month on a mortgage, property, taxes, insurance, when I could rent the identical home for $5,200 a month.

**Brandon Turner** (3:01)
Yeah, this goes back to the perspective, right? If you were to own that house for three years, 100%, I would not buy a house. If you're not living there for two years, one year, probably not. But if you're going to own that house for five years, seven years, 10 years, 20 years, you're going to make so much more than $10,000 a month on average over that time period, because that house that you bought for whatever, call it a million dollars, is in 10 years from now is going to be worth, call it $2 million, maybe $2.5 million, maybe $3. Prices are going up, especially because we have just a massive housing shortage in America. So when you look at over a long period of time, this isn't getting better, it's getting worse for affordability.