50% Tariff Warning: The US-Canada Trade War Escalates

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
Coming up, a 50% tariff threat and billions of dollars of trade at stake. Can Canada persuade President Trump to change course? We'll also look at Alibaba's latest move in the EI raise and why changing jobs is becoming a gamble fewer workers are willing to take. Well, that's all to come on World Business Report, which is after the latest world news.

**Jason Kay** (0:29)
BBC News with Jason Kay. World football's governing body FIFA has sacked its chief operating officer Kevin Lamour. He'd been one of the strongest critics of now abandoned plans by the organisation's president Gianni Infantino to sell stakes in the World Cup and other tournaments to private investors.
President Trump's Middle East envoy Jared Kushner has expressed hopes of progress after holding talks on Gaza over the past two days with Israeli and Hamas leaders. But no significant breakthrough appears to have been made. Meanwhile, Mr Trump says that the US is not seeking an extension of the interim deal with Iran, which was meant to have led to a final agreement by Monday. The prosecution in the case of the only man charged in the killing of the American rapper Tupac Shakur 30 years ago says that he handed the murder weapon to the actual killer. But lawyers for the defendant, Duane Keffi D. Davis, say that the prosecution doesn't have enough facts for a conviction.
A court in New York has postponed the state trial on murder charges of Luigi Mangione, who last week pleaded guilty in a federal court to killing the health insurance executive Brian Thompson. Mr Mangione's lawyers say he shouldn't be tried twice for the same offence.
Moldovan authorities say a missile has exploded in a rural area close to the border with Ukraine. Ukraine's air force says it tracked a Russian cruise missile crossing the border from the Odessa region before it disappeared from the radar. It's not the first time projectiles have landed in countries neighbouring Ukraine. And Russia's Supreme Court has rejected an appeal launched by the anti-war Yabloko party against its exclusion from parliamentary elections. Earlier, another court sentenced its deputy chairman to 11 years in a penal colony for criticising the invasion of Ukraine. BBC News.

**SPEAKER_1** (2:30)
A tariff deadline is looming. Can Canada cut a deal with Trump before it hits?

**Mark Carney** (2:35)
We'll have opportunities over the next 48 hours to discuss in more detail.

**Christine Collector** (2:39)
Canadian wineries across the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, British Columbia are certainly impacted.

**SPEAKER_1** (2:47)
It's World Business Report from the BBC World Service. I am busy at Debaio. Canada and the US race to reach a trade deal before a new 50% tariffs kick in. Also, Alibaba takes the AI battle to your laptop, with a new model designed to run on consumer devices. And job-hugging, why nervous workers are choosing to stay exactly where they are.
So Canada and the United States are trying to reach a trade agreement before a new round of 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods is due to take effect on Wednesday. Well speaking earlier, Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiations are ongoing.

**Mark Carney** (3:31)
Frankly, we'll have opportunities over the next 48 hours to discuss in more detail as the negotiations go forward. And I think that's the best for them.

**SPEAKER_1** (3:41)
The tariffs announced by President Donald Trump last month cover around $20 billion worth of goods, including dairy and alcohol. Canadian and American negotiators have been meeting frequently in recent days and they're looking for concessions that could persuade the US president to scrap the plans. Well, let's bring in Joseph Steinberg, who is a professor of economics at University of Toronto. Joseph, we're talking about 50% tariffs here. How significant will the economic impacts be if they actually come into force?

**Joseph Steinberg** (4:17)
Great. Thank you very much for having me. I think the first thing for listeners to understand is that while 50% sounds like a very big number, that's a big tariff.
At the same time, these tariffs are only going to cover around 5% of Canada's exports to the United States. And so you should think about that. You know, the back of the envelope calculation there suggests that that would be about a two and a half percentage point increase in the average tariff rate that Canadian exports to the United States face. So in the grand scheme of things, that's actually not that big of a deal. Of course, there are individual producers who sell most of their product to the United States in the affected industries, that are obviously going to be severely impacted. For individual firms, the damage will be pretty bad. But for the Canadian economy as a whole, I expect the economy would largely shrug these tariffs off.