2424: A $1.3 Million Bitcoin Target - The Math Institutions Are Using

**Justin Verrengia** (0:00)
You're worried the big money might sell their Bitcoin? Good, because the institutions coming next don't need their Bitcoin, they need yours. The Bitcoin sellers are making headlines. 23,093 Bitcoin from MARA, another 1,690 Bitcoin from Strategy, more than 1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin, sold by two of the biggest names in the game. And you know what? I'm not worried, because while everyone is staring at the Bitcoin being sold, they're missing the mountain of money preparing to buy MARA sold 23,093 Bitcoin during the first half of 2026, raising roughly 1.6 billion as the minor shift capital towards debt reduction and infrastructure expansion. Strategy just sold another 1,690 Bitcoin announced today, raising roughly 109 million. And instead of running away from Bitcoin, Strategy used those proceeds to repurchase STRC preferred stock. At the same time, the company raised roughly 653 million by selling MSTR shares, helping push its dollar reserve to 4.65 billion. That is the official strategy, Sailor Fiat War Chest at the moment. And after selling Bitcoin, Strategy still owns 840,447 Bitcoin. Read that again, 840,447 Bitcoin. This isn't Sailor abandoning Bitcoin. This is what happens when Bitcoin Treasury companies become capital machines. Bitcoin becomes collateral. Bitcoin becomes Treasury capital. Bitcoin gets monetized when management sees an opportunity. And through all of it, the Bitcoin network keeps producing the same scarce asset every 10 minutes. Here's where the math gets insane. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan just laid it out. Institutions currently manage up to $200 trillion.
They don't need to go all in. They don't need 10%.
They don't even need 5%.
1%, that's it. Hougan says a 1% Bitcoin allocation from that institutional capital could help drive the Bitcoin price to $1.3 million per coin by 2035
Now let's do the math. 1% of 200 trillion is $2 trillion.
Potential institutional allocation, $2 trillion. Maximum Bitcoin supply, $21 million. And they're not actually competing for all 21 million coins. Millions of Bitcoin as we know are lost, stagnated, and there's millions more being held by long-term holders and whales. And in enormous amounts of supply simply aren't sitting on exchanges waiting to be sold. That's the part the bears keep missing. They see 23,093 Bitcoin sold by MARA and scream, sell pressure. I see 23,000 Bitcoin becoming available to a financial system that increasingly wants exposure to an asset it cannot manufacture. MARA can sell Bitcoin, strategy can sell Bitcoin, miners can sell Bitcoin, whales can sell Bitcoin, you can sell your Bitcoin. But every Bitcoin sold has to land in somebody else's hands. There is no Bitcoin factory waiting to increase production because institutions suddenly want 1%.
There is no central bank that can print another 10 million Bitcoin. There is no CEO who can authorize more supply. There's just 21 million, period. And while MARA sells, other companies are still stacking. For example, Strive just purchased another 147 Bitcoin for roughly 9.5 million, taking its reported holdings above 20,000 BTC.
That's the market. One institution sells, another buys. Capital moves, Bitcoin changes hands, but the maximum supply never changes. And that's why more than 1.7 billion in Bitcoin sales doesn't scare me because the bigger story isn't how much Bitcoin major holders are selling. It's how little exposure the rest of the institutional financial system still has. But Bitwise isn't modeling institutions going all in. They're modeling allocations beginning around 1%.
And their base case destination, $1.3 million Bitcoin. So go ahead, sell the Bitcoin. Someone else is waiting to own it. And when trillions in institutional capital start fighting over 21 million coins, do the math. The sellers made the headlines, but the buyers are the real story. So let's follow the money, run the numbers and see why 1% can change. Bitcoin forever. Let's start right here. Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, says the 1% Bitcoin allocation from institutions managing up to $200 trillion can help drive Bitcoin to $1.3 million by 2035
First and foremost, let me know your thoughts on that prediction. It's a big number. You may say that's too bullish, JV. I say it's bearish. And this is the base case. Just FYI, because the caveat, 2035 Right now, we're in 2026 So in the next nine years, can't you see Bitcoin being a minimal? A 1.3 million per coin. That's my question for you. And that's with just 1% allocation from the massive pools of capital. Let that sink in. BlackRock alone controls 15 trillion and assets under management. Collectively, it's 200 trillion. That's a lot of capital. Considering Bitcoin today, the market cap is 1.3 trillion. So just 1% allocation driving the priced 1.3 million would ultimately more than double today's market cap. And obviously, there can be multipliers. It could be extremely higher than that. In my opinion, this is conservative, but that's what we're dealing with. Also, I've been mentioning the ETF inflows are back in the green. Check this out. Breaking news. SpotBitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest weekly inflow since April, taking in 850 million worth of Bitcoin. This is always bullish. Bitcoin price action tends to follow these institutional flows since the institutions started embracing Bitcoin back in early 2024, when the iBit Bitcoin ETF, along with the 10 others, went live. And there's been a massive influx into them. And right now, BlackRock, for example, is the second largest Bitcoin holder in the world, right under Michael Saylor's strategy. And they're not slowing down. They're going to continue to be net buyers absorbing Bitcoin from the supply.