2409: $5M Bitcoin Thesis - Why Saylor Says Strategy Will Never Be Forced To Sell

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Justin Verrengia** (0:53)
Michael Saylor is either your biggest ally or your biggest enemy. It all depends on how much Bitcoin you own. Let's get into it. The biggest threat to your future Bitcoin stack isn't BlackRock. It isn't the US government. It isn't sovereign wealth funds. It's Michael Saylor. That probably sounds ridiculous until you understand Bitcoin because Michael Saylor isn't your enemy. He's only a threat if you still haven't accumulated enough Bitcoin. If you already front ran him, every Bitcoin he buys works in your favor. Every purchase removes more Bitcoin from the liquid supply.
Every purchase makes your Bitcoin harder to replace. That's Bitcoin game theory. And strategy just reveals something that should make every Bitcoiner pay attention. The company stated that based on its current capital structure, Bitcoin could decline an average of 11.4% per year for nearly 5.8 consecutive years. And strategy can still fully fund its interest expense and prefer dividends while maintaining a 1x Bitcoin rating. Most people will read that and think it's a corporate finance story. It isn't. It's a Bitcoin story. Because the biggest risk critics have always pointed to is that strategy could eventually become a for-seller. If Bitcoin crashed long enough, the argument was that Saylor would have no choice but to liquidate his precious Bitcoin. Strategy is telling the market it has engineered around that risk. That changes the conversation. Instead of asking whether Saylor will survive the next bear market, investors should be asking, how much more Bitcoin he will accumulate during it. Remember, Strategy already owns currently 843,775 Bitcoin. At the current prices, it's roughly $54 billion, their entire position. No public operating company even comes close. And every Sunday, the market waits to see if there's another orange dot appearing on the Strategy Tracker. And today, there was. Because history has shown that when fear takes over, Michael Saylor usually ends up owning even more Bitcoin. That's why his post today stood out. He wrote, we're going to need another color. Most people see a joke. Bitcoiners see conviction. The conviction of someone who isn't trying to time Bitcoin. He's trying to own as much of the fixed supply as possible before everyone else realizes what's happening. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Chainalysis estimates that roughly 3.7 million Bitcoin are already lost and gone forever. Now nearly 844,000 belong to strategy alone. Every additional purchase shrinks the supply available for everyone else. Once you've built your Bitcoin position, Michael Saylor stops being your competition. He becomes one of your greatest allies. Every Bitcoin he acquires makes it more difficult for future buyers to build meaningful Bitcoin positions. That's the beauty of Bitcoin. Once you've established your stack, you want other people competing for what's left. Because competition for fixed supply is exactly what drives the price discovery. The real threat was never Michael Saylor. The real threat has always been waiting while Michael Saylor, BlackRock, corporations and eventually nation states continue competing for the same fixed supply of Bitcoin. One day people will ask, how Bitcoin became so expensive? The answer won't be complicated. It will be because the people who understood Bitcoin kept buying while everyone else kept waiting for permission.
So that's why you don't wait and you don't short your dorks. You can't afford that. Now, I'm not going to ask you to believe me. Let's just go straight to the source. Here's the post from Saylor Today, time stamp 846 a.m. July 26 Already over a half a million views. He wrote, we're going to need another color. And he posted the infamous Strategy Tracker, shows the current Bitcoin reserve is valued at 54.36 billion. As of today, they hold 843,775 Bitcoin with 113 purchases. So, will tomorrow, when he files with the SEC, will he announce another Bitcoin purchase? Or is he going to stick to building his fiat war chest, which he has done over the past couple of weeks? Or will he do a combination of the two? Now, also, Strategy just shared and Saylor did repost this. At today's capital structure, Bitcoin could fall 11.4% annually for 5.8 years, and Strategy could still fully fund interest and prefer dividends while maintaining a 1x Bitcoin rating. So, as you know, there's always been a lot of fud that Saylor will be the largest force seller of Bitcoin. Peter Schiff has preached this theory. We all know Bitcoin won't consecutively decline year after year after year. Especially when the bear market is over and we excel and reenter price discovery. And then all of a sudden, Saylor's $54 billion balance sheet can double practically overnight. You know, what happens when Bitcoin hits a quarter million or a million dollars per coin? And then Saylor's company is just producing insane amounts of revenue because they're the largest corporate holder in the world. Saylor's company is a part of the financial industrial complex, right? So there's decentralized Bitcoin and centralized Bitcoin or paper Bitcoin. And investing in strategy does not give you decentralized Bitcoin. You got to understand that, that there is a difference. If you don't hold your private keys, there's a slogan here for Bitcoiners, nacho keys, nacho cheese.