2396: $100T Bitcoin Truth - There Are No Sellers

**Justin Verrengia** (0:00)
The next Bitcoin bull market will not be driven by demand. It'll be driven by something far more powerful. Bitcoin has a problem. There are no sellers. Every cycle, more Bitcoin disappears into the hands of people who have no intention of overselling it. And that's where today's story begins. Every buyer needs someone willing to sell. That sounds obvious, but it changes everything. Because every year, more Bitcoin leaves exchanges, more Bitcoin moves into cold storage, more Bitcoin ends up in corporate treasuries, more Bitcoin ends up inside of ETFs, and more Bitcoin ends up in the hands of people who simply refuse to sell. Think about strategy. They now own 843,775 Bitcoin, over 4% of the entire Bitcoin supply.
Those coins are not coming back. BlackRock keeps buying, the spot ETFs keep buying, public companies keep buying, nation states are buying. Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply doesn't increase. It gets cut in half every four years. Demand doesn't have to explode overnight. It simply has to grow faster than the number of people willing to sell. That's how supply shocks happen. People think Bitcoin becomes valuable because everyone suddenly wants it. I think it's quite the opposite. Bitcoin becomes valuable because eventually, almost nobody wants to give theirs up. The market doesn't run out of Bitcoin. It runs out of people willing to sell it. That's a huge difference. Every previous cycle, people said Bitcoin was too expensive. At $1,000, $10,000, $30,000, and today, people say the same thing at 64Gs. But the question isn't whether Bitcoin looks expensive today. The question is how expensive will it look when even fewer people are willing to sell? History has already given us clues. After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin rallied 1,750%.
After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rallied 660%.
Different cycles, different headlines, different buyers, but the same math. Every cycle, more Bitcoin finds permanent owners. And every cycle, the available supply gets even tighter. Every cycle, buyers compete for fewer liquid coins. That's why the biggest opportunities never feel comfortable. When sellers disappear, the news feels terrible. Fear dominates. People wait for just one more dip, one more correction, one more crash. Then suddenly the market turns, and everyone who waited starts chasing. Not because they changed, but because the price did. That's why the best Bitcoin investors don't obsess over predicting the next 5% move. They focus on owning a scarce asset before scarcity becomes obvious. The irony is people spend years waiting for the perfect entry, while the people already holding Bitcoin have no intention of helping them. They aren't selling, they're accumulating, they're transferring their coins into long-term storage, and they're waiting for everyone else to discover the same truth. Bitcoin doesn't have a demand problem. It has a seller problem. The real question is, who's left to sell? And if this trend continues, the biggest story won't be demand. It'll be supply or more accurately, the lack of it. And one day, people won't remember that Bitcoin cost $64,000. They'll remember there was once a time when people were still willing to sell their Bitcoin. Now let me show you why.
Michael Saylor isn't worried about the volatility. That's for sure. Saylor updated us here this morning with the infamous strategy tracker he wrote, orange dots tell only part of the story. And as you can see here, strategy since adopting Bitcoin and putting it on their balance sheet, they now have 113 purchases. They hold the total of 843,775.
And tomorrow, it leads me to believe he's gonna obviously make a big announcement and the announcement will be one of two things, most likely in my opinion, that he acquired more Bitcoin for the company, buying the dip and or he increased his USD Fiat War Chest or a combination of each, which we have seen in the more recent weeks. And also more recently, he just began selling Bitcoin. And so do you think it's going to be an announcement of selling some more Bitcoin to raise more capital? Or do you think it'll be purchasing more Bitcoin or a combination of the two? Let me know whatever you think will likely happen. For right now, the Bitcoin strategy holds is worth roughly $54 billion.
And strategy is underwater significantly with unrealized losses. Maybe I'm speculating $15 billion. But then again, an unrealized loss is just that. It's unrealized and you can't lose what you don't sell. So let me know your thoughts there. But one thing is for sure, strategy will continue to be a net buyer. In fact, he has addressed this in recent interviews. I actually want to share one with you right here. Because last week, he sold 3000 bits coin and here's him addressing it. Check out this video clip.