2026 Midyear STR Outlook: What's Driving Demand, Pricing & Growth for the Rest of the Year

**Bram Gallagher** (0:05)
Welcome to the STR Data Lab.

**Jamie Lane** (0:12)
Hello, and welcome to the STR Data Lab. I'm Jamie Lane, Chief Economist at AirDNA, and I am joined today again by my good friend and colleague, Bram Gallagher. Bram, good to see you.

**Bram Gallagher** (0:23)
Good to see you too, Jamie. Exciting time and always fun to be on the podcast. Thank you.

**Jamie Lane** (0:28)
Yeah, so this episode, we're gonna dive into our mid-year review. So, really step back. And we're sitting here beginning of July and can review the first half of the year, get a sense of how it's played out, how it's played out versus expectations and then talk about what we expect for the year ahead and even into 2027 But given that it's mid-July, mid-July is like peak short-term rental demand. We're probably seeing more stays happening this week than any other week throughout the year. You're going to be taking some trips this summer, Bram.
What does your summer look like?

**Bram Gallagher** (1:23)
Probably, well, not for the next month, right? Because I got to take a close eye on the research team while you are on a sabbatical going to Iceland. Very jealous, and of course, Maine as well. It's going to be beautiful and also a great way to beat the heat because a lot of us are experiencing that. I just got back from a trip across the Appalachia. I went to Pigeon Forge, then Asheville, and then Greenville to go to the TTRA and had a really nice time doing that. We did pack so much stuff in there. I feel like I've had three vacations already.
Leslie, my partner, she planned it as a hedge against future gas price increases. She said, we'll just do all the trips in one while we're up there. It was a really great time and a really great panel too at TTRA. I posted a link on my LinkedIn if anyone's following along. But yeah, I got to talk with Darrell Cronk from Tourism Economics, Joey Von Nessen from the Moore School in South Carolina. Always fun to talk to economists, especially when we're thinking about the future.

**Jamie Lane** (2:26)
Yeah. So I asked about vacation and you talked about a conference, Bram. What's going on?

**Bram Gallagher** (2:31)
Well, we had some time around the edges.

**Jamie Lane** (2:37)
I think we used to, coming out of the pandemic, we were what calling that bleasure.

**Bram Gallagher** (2:41)
Yes. That's right. Mullet travel.

**Jamie Lane** (2:43)
Business in the front and leisure in the back.

**Bram Gallagher** (2:46)
Yes, exactly. Yeah.
We were just in the area, I guess. But yeah, my son and Leslie, they had a couple of days while I was at the conference, where they were just exploring Greenville by themselves. So they had a really great time. Really fun town. They've done so much work by the river. They're just really nice in and out. They've got so much walkable downtown and so many great restaurants there. It's kind of an unexpected gem. If anyone wants a drive to regional leisure destination, can highly recommend Greenville.

**Jamie Lane** (3:19)
That's awesome. Yeah. And as you mentioned, I am out the month of July.
This is sort of last little recording before heading out with the family for 10 days in Iceland and then a few weeks in Maine. We'll come back in August. Refreshed AirDNA. They give everyone including the leadership team a month long sabbatical after you hit five years. So coming up on six, so I got to take it before I lose it. So for our loyal listeners, you will be hearing a variety of different hosts and guests while I'm out with others stepping in to keep a new episode in your feed every week. So with that, Bram, I do want to dive in to what we saw in the first half of the year.
Because I was going back and reading your 2026 Outlook report that we put out at the beginning of 2026 And you described 2025 as the year of two halves. So we had the beginning of the year, which started out relatively strong, decent booking behavior and growing occupancies.
And then things sort of, and the bottom fell out in the back half of the year. And that is really a starting point for how this year's played out where we've had some tough comps in the first half of this year, and last year performed so well. And now we're coming up in the back half of the year, and we've got some easier comps to sort of go against. And with back half of last year so weak, we have, and it's easier to grow off of that than in the first half when it was growing so strong. And Occupancy, I don't think it's been as strong as we would have hoped in the first part of the year. It's still slightly down. But ADRs have come in and relatively strong, not as strong as inflation, but growing. And then our big prediction for the year was that supply was going to re-accelerate. And with interest rates falling at or below six, home values moderating and that leading to a resurgence in short-term middle investment. But as usually happens, there's always new things that get introduced into the equation.