11AM Hour: Early SpaceX Investor Christian Garrett, Samsung Shares Tumble & Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian 7/7/26

**Diana Olek** (0:00)
The board recommends approving...

**SPEAKER_2** (0:01)
Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting......to most quarterly earnings...

**SPEAKER_3** (0:04)
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**Carl Quintanilla** (1:00)
Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Leslie Picker here at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Sara Eisen is off today. Tech investors rattled as DeepSeek pushes ahead with its own AI chip ambitions. And amid AI spending concerns at Samsung, Goldman's chief equity strategist is with us to why he says volatility in the tech space will remain elevated.

**Leslie Picker** (1:20)
Plus, the streets take on SpaceX. Multiple firms initiating coverage on the company's first day of trading. We're joined by one early investor who says the street calls confirm tremendous growth ahead.

**Carl Quintanilla** (1:32)
The state of the American consumer, Walmart lowering prices on thousands of items, winning some praise from the president. Meantime, a little bit of pain in technology today. NASDAQ's down almost 1.5%.
The Q's below the 50 day for only the second time going back to say April 7th. We're gonna watch that closely. And then treasury yields are a little bit stubborn today. New York is 10 years back above 4.5% and the long bonds back above 5

**Leslie Picker** (1:58)
But we will start with some breaking news. Out of the New York Fed, Steve Leesman has that for us. Hi Steve.

**Steve Leesman** (2:04)
Hey Leslie, you have the New York Fed out with its Survey of Consumer Expectations for June with the closely watched inflation expectations in it. And they are up for the short and medium term with the question about whether or not with the decline in gas prices they fall in the months ahead. But for now, New York Fed reporting that they're 3.7% for the one year outlook. That's up to 0.2% points. The three year up as well 0.2. By the way, that one year is the highest September 2023 The five year unchanged at 3%. Pardon me, but that's been hovering around that 3% for quite a long time. The Fed looking more closely at the three and the five year numbers. Price Expectations for Medical Care rising by a half a point. Expectations for rent up nearly a full percentage point at 0.9%.
And for food prices, they actually fell 0.8% points, but they're still high in the 5% year over year outlook. The outlook for the job market, though, did improve. Take a look here, labor market expectations are higher.
The expectations for higher unemployment declined by one and a half percentage point. That remains above the 12 month average. But the average probability of losing one job, that declined by a full percentage point. That's below the 12 month average. And the probability of finding a new job if you lose your existing job, that also rose 1.2. So better, more stable numbers from the job market. And there's one other point here, the New York Fed expectations for US stock market, hitting the highest level since April 2021, up 2.9 points. So they are paying attention out there in the broader world there of what's going on in the stock market here. But overall, Leslie, what I would say is, it's a report that kind of confirms where I think the Fed's head is at, which is a problem with inflation, but not necessarily one with the job market.

**Leslie Picker** (3:45)
Yeah, the clear focus on achieving price stability. How important are these types of surveys to inform actual monetary policy, Steve?

**Steve Leesman** (3:54)
I think over time they become important, not month to month. I think that this is certainly one of the emphasis of the new Kevin Warsh Fed is to watch these things more over time. So I think what they'll probably expect is the one year will go down with gas prices, but they'll watch those three and those five-year numbers. They don't want the longer-term expectations of consumers for inflation to become entrenched at 3% when, of course, 2% is their goal. So I think it's part of the growing frustration on parts of certainly the Hawks, but maybe even the center of the board, that these numbers remain elevated closer to 3 than 2 over time. And it's part of what's animating them. And I'll just check, Leslie, very quickly, unchanged, but still high, the September probability of a rate hike at 57%, but only 25% for July. So the market's going to give a little bit of time before they think for sure the Fed is going to hike rates, but it's in the forecast or in the futures market prices right now.