10AM Hour: SOFI CEO, Zuckerberg’s AI Vendetta, SK Hynix Results Fail to Impress 7/29/26

**Sara Eisen** (0:00)
The board recommends approving...

**SPEAKER_2** (0:01)
Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting...

**Anastasia Almarosso** (0:02)
to most quarterly earnings...

**SPEAKER_4** (0:04)
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**Sara Eisen** (1:00)
Good Wednesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks are under pressure on this Fed Day with today's decision far from a foregone conclusion. We'll talk about what investors should expect from Chairman Warsh. Plus, SOFI out with earnings this morning. Stock is pulling back hard. We'll talk to the CEO, Anthony Noto, about the quarter first on CNBC in just a moment, and we'll get to the latest developments in the Middle East that are driving oil prices higher and weighing on market sentiment. But guys, it is Fed Day, so we're going to do a deep dive and show you the case for raising interest rates today. It's not what the market is priced in. There's about a 30 percent chance of that in the Fed Fund's futures.
Cal-She odds right now are only a 26 percent of a hike, but there is a strong case to be made for them hiking. Here's a dual mandate, right? Inflation is a key part of the mandate, and it's where they're missing on their mandate. SPCE, which the Fed targets and looks at, and you can see it's elevated and came up pretty sharply recently because of the price of oil. However, the trimmed mean, which smooths out some of the one-time factors and the volatile factors, which Warsh has himself mentioned that he likes to look at. He did that in his testimony before he got confirmed.
It's definitely more moderate. The other side of the mandate is jobs, and just look at the unemployment rate since 2021, and you can see that it really has not come up that much. It's a healthy jobs market, and that means the Fed does not need to worry as much about jobs and does need to worry more about inflation. And we heard the shift from the Fed Chairman himself multiple times in the last few weeks about why he's so focused on price stability and inflation. Listen to this.

**Jay Warsh** (2:48)
We don't want to over determine things. But if there were people in household or the business sector and the financial markets, who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2 percent, well, I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability in the US. That's what this committee has signed up to do.
And our objective is to do that. The tactics, the strategy and the rest, so that's still to come.

**Sara Eisen** (3:16)
To me, that sounds very hawkish. He's not doing forward guidance and he's not saying that means we're going to raise interest rates, but he says we're not going to tolerate the higher inflation. And the way to do that is to raise interest rates. That's the case, right? Carl, that inflation is still above target.
Credibility really matters here. And that is not just independence from the president, but also credibility in the markets that he's serious about fighting inflation and that he said inflation is a choice. Well, then that would argue for a rate hike. Also, the counterargument is that, and Steve mentioned this, why do the surprise move? The market's not pricing it in. It'll just add to volatility and it'll be a mess. Actually, a surprise move would shatter the era of we do what the markets tell us to do and we follow the markets. We're more concerned about inflation. And it doesn't have to be heavy predictability. He said he didn't want forward guidance. What better way to prove that he doesn't want forward guidance than to raise interest rates?

**Carl Quintanilla** (4:13)